Joni Ernst, victor in what has been inappropriately termed a landslide, has shoring up and confidence building to do with the base. That is one inescapable conclusion from reviewing Republican participation rates.
Republican participation rate in the primary yesterday was down an astounding 39% in Scott County over the 2010 rate. The election of 2010 had a contentious governors race so participation would be expected to be above average in such circumstances. However this year the state had an open U.S. Senate race, the first time in 30 years on the Republican side. Interest and turnout should have been beyond 2010 and it was not. It was only 61% of 2010.
Here are the numbers regarding participation:
Registration totals for May provide the last comparative totals available at this writing for 2010 and 2014. If the June 2014 total changes anything significantly we will revise the percentages in this report. The June over May 2010 increase in Republican registration was only 171 so we do not expect a change.
May 2010 Republican Registration – 30,279
Number of Scott County Republicans voting in June Primary race achieving the most attention (Governor) – 10,032
Percent participating in 2010 – 33.13%
May 2014 Republican Registration – 32,586
Number of Scott County Republicans voting in June Primary race achieving the most attention (Senate) – 6,627
Percent participating in 2014 – 20.34%
Obviously the raw number reflecting participation was greatly reduced. But registration totals change year to year so comparing percentages of turnout participation for each year provides the more telling picture of interest. Accordingly, yesterday’s primary Republican turnout rate was only 61.39% of the rate of turnout in 2010, or roughly a 39% less participation rate.
Polls leading up to the race yesterday indicated a high level of undecideds. Which way those undecideds were going to break was a subject of great anticipation in the various camps. As it turned out, arguably, they “broke” to not voting.
In coming days we will explore possible reasons for the participation downfall and what Ernst needs to do, along with other reflections on yesterday’s primary.
Joni is making pretty big waves newswise from what I can tell from here in Texas. I really haven’t gone out of my way at all to look at Iowa news the last few days and have read/heard her name come up repeatedly in several outlets.
I know this doesn’t have anything to do with republican confidence in Iowa, it just goes to show how national this race will be moving forward.
If conservatives are in power in the Senate she will probably be a good Senator. Grassley has been great lately, if she stays with him we are in good stead.
C’mon. Are Iowans really interested in voting for a wholly owned and operated tool (Braley) of the trial lawyers who has nothing but contempt for ” farmers”. Well, maybe the QCTimes ed board but I mean real Iowans.