People are fed up and do not trust the Washington establishment — two articles that put Trump in perspective.
Mollie Hemingway, writing at The Federalist, has a trenchant post today about the Trump phenomenon. We think it explains the situation quite well.
If Donald Trump Is Awful, The GOP Is Worse Sure, he can’t be trusted, is inarticulate and has no intention of repealing Obamacare. How is that different from the GOP?
There are basically two categories of people who are expressing support for the candidacy of Donald Trump. There are the people who “like” him in the sense that he’s a vehicle for expressing their strong and deeply held dislike of the general direction of the country, the corrupt political climate of Washington, and the performance of the Republican Party in particular. And there are the people who actually like him for real, people who think he’s not just a really fun and funny — almost Dadaist! — thought experiment in the long months leading up to the 2016 election but people who think he shows the right temperament, rhetorical abilities, and prudence required for the leader of a self-governed nation. Let’s leave those dear people aside and focus on the bulk who like Trump and support his candidacy in the sense that they’re enjoying it for any number of legitimate reasons, given the portion of the 2016 race we’re in (early enough to have some fun and try to send some loud messages to the party).
Hemingway goes on to list certain critiques or complaints about Trump that she puts in perspective: Her take on each is delightfully set forth here:
He’s inarticulate.
He can’t be trusted.
He’s never done anything to address [INSERT ISSUE HERE] in the last decade.
He’s not serious about repealing Obamacare.
He’s overseen four bankruptcies.
He’s mean to Republicans.
He struggles with media respect.
Her take on each of these is delightfully set forth:
Robert Romano at NetRightDaily / Americans for Limited Government has this insightful piece on the Trump candidacy. Bold type face is our emphasis. Re-posted here in its entirty with permission.
It had all of the makings of a classic gotcha moment.
At the start of the August 6 Republican presidential debate in Ohio, Fox News moderator Brett Baier asked, “Is there anyone on stage, and can I see hands, who is unwilling tonight to pledge your support to the eventual nominee of the Republican party and pledge to not run an independent campaign against that person?”
Businessman Donald Trump, the current GOP frontrunner, raised his hand.
For any other candidate, such a position might be fatal. But for Trump, it plays to his campaign theme of being the political outsider running against the Washington, D.C. Republican establishment.
Baier noted, “Experts say an independent run would almost certainly hand the race over to Democrats and likely another Clinton. You can’t say tonight that you can make that pledge?”
“I cannot say,” Trump said, adding, “I have to respect the person that, if it’s not me, the person that wins, if I do win, and I’m leading by quite a bit, that’s what I want to do. I can totally make that pledge. If I’m the nominee, I will pledge I will not run as an independent. But — and I am discussing it with everybody, but I’m, you know, talking about a lot of leverage. We want to win, and we will win. But I want to win as the Republican. I want to run as the Republican nominee.”
Later on the Hannity Show, Trump further explained his position to host Sean Hannity, “If they don’t treat me well, Sean, why should I make that pledge? At this moment, it’s great leverage, and I might as well use it.”
Trump added, “I just want to be treated well and treated with respect.”
In other words, holding out the possibility of an independent presidential run frees up Trump to pursue the campaign he envisions.
And so far, it appears to be working, as Trump has rocketed to a lead in the national poll, and now appears to be leading substantially in early states Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
The current political environment has seen declining party identification over the past decade. People have become disillusioned with the two-party system that seems to produce the same outcomes regardless of who is in power. That is the heart of Trump’s appeal on issues like illegal immigration and trade.
In particular, Republican Party identification has collapsed, research from Gallup reveals. Self-identified Republicans have dropped from a high of 39 percent in September 2004 to just 23 percent today. In the meantime, that decline directly coincided to the uptrend in independents, from 28 percent to 46 percent today.
Sure, Trump could be bluffing. But consider the benefit of raising his hand at the debate in a state like, say, New Hampshire. It is an open primary allowing independents to vote. In the latest poll from Gravis, he was up by 17 points there.
Running as an independent for president, then — even while running in a party primary — is seen as an asset by voters. Especially independent voters.
It makes him that much more appealing as a candidate who, he can say credibly, will not be controlled by the party establishment. And, one cannot discount how many new potential voters he is bringing to the table in the process. The August 6 debate, with 24 million viewers, was the most highly-rated presidential primary debate in history.
So, what’s supposed to be a negative and an act of political suicide — refusing to rule out an independent run — turns out to be a net asset. Trump is getting all the benefits of running as an independent, all the while leveraging the known Republican brand and the resources that come with running in the party’s primary.
It represents Trump’s trump card. He identified it as leverage.
Meaning, if Republican Party insiders want to forestall such a run, they had better, in the least, be respectful of his candidacy or, at a maximum, help make him the party’s nominee.
Otherwise, who knows what Trump might do?
We offer one other piece of advice to Republican Party Insiders — if you don’t think Trump can win but want Trump’s supporters — give them someone to vote for — “steal his issues” — back the candidate(s) that are actual alternatives to Trump – those with no-more-games anti- establishment authenticity, note those who are seen as part of the problem. The more in bed a candidate looks with the Republican establishment, the less likely independents and blue-collar Democrats will be to vote for them.
