- Cruz surges past Trump to polling lead in Iowa but more on that later
- Our impression of the crowd in Davenport
- Trump’s comments
Trump attendees are not the country club set (of course they don’ t go to these types of rallies anyway)
The Mississippi Valley Fairgrounds was a good venue for the expected attendance at Trump’s Davenport event. Held in the new exhibition / auction hall, which provides for bleachers and lots of standing room, the facility easily held the approximately 3500 * in attendance. That figure we expect is less than expectations but certainly impressive as it is a multiple of any other Republican candidate’s audience.
Trump quoted Bon Jovi that the attendance at his events are more than anyone without a guitar. But there is no doubt a celebrity component to the attendance at his political appearances. That would be consistent with those standing nearest to me. A minor chitchat survey of them during the wait until The Donald came onstage indicated that one favored Rubio, one Fiorina, one had no preference as yet and me a Cruz supporter. There seemed to be nods from others who were the next shoulder width away that they too were there as much out of “wanting to see Trump.” This is not to diminish what also appeared to be an appreciation of his message.
Trump appeared onstage 40 minutes late. Because we were aware of the Secret Service security check-in, and desiring to get a decent viewing position, we arrived 45 minutes early. So that means we were there almost an hour and a half standing before Trump arrived onstage. Those who got bleacher seats (all were filled when we arrived) must have got there quite a bit earlier. Trump’s delay in appearing onstage was not to allow for security admittance as few trickled in much past the scheduled start. This observer was sorely tempted at the thirty minute late mark to belt out “Trump your a half hour late, your fired!” I think it would have been half-well received, but I did not.
Just scanning the attendees one gets a pretty good idea of the demographics that comprises the Trump political phenomenon. It was certainly white, we would venture a guess of 60/40 male/ female maybe a little less on the distaff side at the rally, and this is key, blue-collar. The specter of “Reagan Democrats” or “no party” was the vibe we received.
While the crowd was too large to determine without wading through, we did not notice a lot of Republicans known to us, other than the relatively small contingent ( a few dozen) that pretty much attends every such event. In the near outer circles surrounding us Muscatine or Burlington references were overheard. That people would come from surrounding counties is typical. Muscatine, Cedar, Clinton and some Illinois counties would be expected. Our impression is that Trump would attract from further out than most as he has not made a lot of appearance around the state.
The big question for Trump is how many have been to a caucus. The more who have the more likely they will be to show up that night. Newbies take some coaxing and hand-holding to start with. If they are of the simply cranky type and just want to make a statement at one of these events, or are simply curious, different story. There is a psychological barrier to attending a heterogeneous affair but as far as stamina and time commitment goes, they probably already exercised all they need to complete the cauus on February 1st. It is also true that the attendees can change their minds about who they will support and ambivalence could keep them away.
The Donald, The Speech
As his speeches are often characterized, they do seem “stream of consciousness” affairs. He can get away with it to some extent because his reputation proceeds him as a deal maker. His devotees either support his grander statements outright or they feel they are in on his negotiating shtick and accept what is arguably bombast as a negotiating start. Indeed in this speech he castigated the Republican establishment for leading with minimal positions.
It might be argued that our notes set forth here make him seem more scatological than he is. Perhaps, but then we are not stenographers and no doubt missed some transitions and points. But the order is roughly close to as delivered. Consider these our fallible translations of Trump’s arguably disjointed comments.
- Opens with “Make America Great Again”
- “Our leaders are dumb — $400 billion trade deficit with China; $75 billion with Japan; $40 billion with Mexico”
- Lambasted recent trade agreement
- “I will build the wall – and I will make Mexico pay for it. ” Promises “artistically beautiful, . . . one foot taller than great Wall of China” perhaps to be interpreted tongue in cheek
- Timing of the event was about time of Japanese sneak attack on Pearl Harbor which he raised to say “the disgusting people” in San Bernardino did the same
- “We would not be talking about illegal immigration but for me”
- Regarding terrorism, ” think We need to be as tough mean and nasty as we have to be”
- “Trump people are the most loyal”
- Carson’s people are coming to him. Kasich – “I am beating him in Ohio, he is in the tank so he attacks me”
- Perry — put on those “glasses to make him look smart”
- Lindsey Graham – heavy yawn crowd bored
- Walker – everybody said he would be the one ~~ he went away
- “Marco has a rich fund raiser . . . not as rich as me . . .Marco will be controlled by this guy”
- Only thing that stops his crowd is size of venue (this venue was not “filled”
- Said nothing about Cruz by name
- “Hillary is being protected, she is protected * (by the media)
- Must go to caucuses as “wild and crazy as they are” but must go
- If I win Iowa will never be touched
- Iowa means beautiful land. I am a BIG purchaser of John Deere tractors.
- “My pollster is me. If it is right it’s right”
- I’ve learned more about myself reading their polls, . . . then he asked “why do they hire these guys to tell them they are at 2%?”
- “They said I didn’t know anything about foreign policy but “three years ago I said attack the frick’n oil” and keep it
- Said we gave bomb-proof Humvee’s to our allies and not to our troops.
- “To the victor goes the spoils”
- Incompetent (current political establishment) so there are a lot of things we will change
- I’m getting bigger crowds than anyone without a guitar – 12,000 in Sarasota, six inside, six outside . . . had to give two speeches
- Something about his love of the silent majority becoming the noisy majority.
- Something about Hillary and statute of limitations
- “People want strength “. . . “I am not doing this for fun I want to win” . . . well some
- Liberals interview me and talk about the summer of Trump, the Autumn of Trump . . .
- “I have shown you do not have to be politically correct’.
- (earlier he commented about how he does not use a teleprompter and that should be required)
- Rove (Karl) “still thinks Romney won”, spent a hundred million and won nothing . . . one of his ads is a good commercial for the wrong guy
- I work with Democrats all the time
- “Persians have taken such advantage of this guy John Kerry” . . .
- Said he was big on the Second Amendment and focused some of his stream of consciousness there. It was very well received by the crowd.
- “Gun-free zones are like meat to these people”
- If you don’t have a right to protect yourself yourself you have a whole different country
- Romney let us down . . . you know Democrats have a structural advantage . . .
- You know the great thing about executive orders is the next guy gets to get rid of them
- George Will — he thinks the round glasses make him smart
- “Common Core — out the window”
- I have been in politics all my life
- (Trump) does things under budget and ahead of schedule
- Back to Hillary — “you don’t hear from her for three or four days then she puts on a pantsuit” . . .
- Trump says: “for foreign policy Trump wins”
- The bleachers behind him are comprised of the most enthusiastic sign waving Trump supporters. When they are particularly appreciative of a comment he will turn around to smile and nod to them.
- Hillary doesn’t have strength or stamina — “Benghazi its a damned disgrace”
- “She’s been corrupt for years and years”. . .
- These other guys won’t have the people, won’t have the imagination
- Only won hurt by closing government is the President. They (media/people) won’t talk about the Speaker . . . Boehner says he won’t close government . . . “I don’t want to close government but you don’t say that!”
- He says “he has things he would rather do, just not much”
- Iraq has second largest oil reserves, Afghanistan rich in minerals . . . we fight and China is taking the minerals, China is taking the oil
- People want Asad out but (we know) removing Gaddafi was a disaster . . . Saddam “take him out but its ten times worse ” . . . you hear they want to be killed no “they are chickenshit . . . they don’t want to be killed”
- Jumps to San Bernardino . . . said San Bernardino police didn’t want to profile people . . . “who could be so stupid. . .the mother — she knew — she lied . . . those people who knew have to pay a big price”
- Beginning to wrap up . . . gesture toward media . . . “I went to an Ivy League school . . I’m smarter than them.”
- We have to be strong . . . you are my bosses . . . closed with appeal to show up at the caucuses.
Trump said nothing on social issues that we picked up on but in retrospect there were statements about his support for a strong military and veterans that did not make it into our notes as he skips from point to point quickly.
Donald Trump exudes self confidence and a can-do “no problem” attitude in people. Trump uses his personal wealth as an indicator of success. Trump loves to tweak the media and his other opponents. The crowd loves his jabs. The attendees applauded him frequently for not being subdued or “politically correct.”
R Mall
- we did not have a high vantage point but we did a hard count of a discernible section and estimated the number of those “sections” in attendance.
