One editor’s hopeful impressions — from social media, yard signs, bumper stickers, Trump events, recent polling, crooked Hillary, get-out-the-vote efforts — Trump wins the state and the presidency. Our illustrious senior editor may venture forth separately.
Social media and Internet:
I am not a Facebook user but I frequently have been treated to its quick-moving content. Granted, what I see is through members of the same choir I hum along with. However those friends are broadly connected to a diverse group of friends and so a variety of political views (antagonisms) are evident. We think conservatives and “deplorables” are stacking up very well compared to Hillaryites in content and aggressiveness. Social media and the Internet are the primary carriers of conservative views. Elements of Fox News programing are also important to “fair and balanced” reporting although we have seen political correctness, pack-journalism and outright anti-conservative bias rapidly increase its influence there.
The prospects of winning against Hillary have increased with the reliance on social media and the Internet as independent conveyances of information and peer-to-peer influences. That they also serve to expose still dominant liberal media bias means they serve not merely as alternative news and analysis but actually accelerate the decline of reliance on liberal media, undermining its dominance. The nails would be in the coffin of challengers to Hillary without the alternative news sources (kudos to talk radio as well).
It is not a comparative advantage overall for conservatism but such avenues keep it competitive, as the truth will out even in the face of all the avenues that liberalism has to its advantage — newspapers, still dominant liberal broadcast news media, the AP, entertainment media, schools, etc..
Yard sign implications and less races
Driving around Davenport and Bettendorf in recent days we notice the relative dearth of yard signs continues compared to past years. Granted, the category of candidates that drives most yard sign placements, because they are oriented to door to door campaigning , is state legislative candidates. In a large part of Scott County there are no such candidates. Two State House Democrats are getting a free ride from Republicans (more on that in a later post) as Republican leadership couldn’t find any but supposedly has candidates in the offing to fill a vacant Senate seat in a special election plebiscite in December. Democrats did not field a candidate in a Bettendorf State House District for an open seat. Maybe that is because they tried to field the same candidate. We hope the Republican walk-in for that race has had some sufficient conservative principles gel within him.
Apart from the lack of state legislative races,* in the tracks we traced, there is just an obvious lack of presidential race yard signs and a reduction in everything else. There is maybe the exception of sheriff and county supervisors which could be about the same. On those, advantage Republicans even though they neglect to say what party they are.
Getting back to presidential, what we do see, however reduced, is advantage Trump. The preponderance of Trump or Hillary is regional within the city but not near the depth or frequency in past years. The dearth is said to be due to the unpopularity of both, but we think Trump has more enthusiasm based on comparative number of placements, particularly when combined with rural areas south of here (exception Blue Grass). ** Advantage Trump and Republicans over previous years.
Bumper strips
Another loose indicator of enthusiasm is the number of observed bumper stickers placed on vehicles. Again, some will say that is due to the unpopularity of the presidential candidates but we see that as mostly affecting Hillary and reflected in Republicans not wanting their vehicles targeted for vandalism which hard-core Democrats have a propensity to do. So in our judgement it is less that Trump has negatives with Republicans but more not trusting Hillary supporters this go around. Also, blue-collar Trump supporters might be reluctant to park their car so displayed at a union oriented work-place (ALCOA, John Deere, and various others).
We also walked a number of church parking lots, primarily Catholic, during services over the last two Saturdays and Sundays. In past years we would see, even in what might be presumed to be parishes in Republican parts of the area, many Obama and other Democrat bumper stickers. Out of many hundreds of cars noted we saw three or four Hillary cars. There were no doubt more but with nowhere near the frequency or they would have stood out more. Trump strips were probably in the teens. That is not a lot, but we score it for Trump.
Trump events
Observing Trump events on Internet and social media, compared to Hillary’s, the difference is astounding. The NBC/CBS/ABC et al cameras do not surveil the crowds. Indeed they make it a biased practice not to as it would be too embarrassing to their candidate either to show attendance at Trump’s or hers. Trump has many thousands at each event and does multiple events with those sorts of numbers within the same state. Hillary’s number in the hundreds and the only way she pumps up numbers is through surrogates (celebrities or Obama) and even then her events are wanting by comparison. It truly is amazing and we think reflects more than a narrow intense popularity. The polls show Trump surging whether or not the mainstream media want to acknowledge anything other than their own biased poll. Big advantage Trump.
Republicans coming home
We are not here referring to the icky likes of the on-again-off-again Paul Ryan but to our own local observance. We have run into one-time neverTrumpers who are no longer so. We predicted recalcitrant Cruz support would line-up and be OK with Trump and it has. We see them doing so not just out of fear of the depth of depravity of a Hillary presidency, but because they are more satisfied with Trump in recent weeks (another reason for Republicans not to push early voting). This includes prominent local Cruz organizers.
We see this as a general trend of conservative leaners as Hillary’s criminality becomes more obvious, more appalling. Solidifies Republican vote.
Polling problems under count Trump support
While agreeing with some points made about polling models being out of whack, and in spite of other points made in this article, I predict a bit higher turnout, just not of the same demographics as past years, more akin to Reagan’s ability to garner blue-collar (a.k.a. deplorable) support. Vote fraud by Democrats, signs of which are rampant around the country, could give Hillary a declaration of victory but they will have to do so more blatantly, depending ever more on a media that will down-play it and cover it up. In a significantly fraud-free vote count, this editor predicts a Trump victory in the popular vote and in the electoral college. The gut feeling is substantiated by reported Trump surges in key states, verified by unplanned Democrat focus on those states AND the most recent IBD/TIPP polling report indicating a 2-point trump advantage for Trump. That poll is said to be the most accurate in the last three cycles.
Get-out the vote efforts
Given the demographics of a large part of the Democrat Party, absentee voting, and accompanying cheating, may be an essential part of their enterprise. It is wasteful and even counterproductive for Republicans to give vote by mail more than the narrowest focus for certain groups. Issue messaging is key and motivates all to vote without confusion. Every mailing given up to vote absentee, every breath wasted on cajoling people who will vote to vote early is a waste of resources. Advantage Democrats because they draw Republicans into the boondoggle which dilutes or diminishes Republican messaging.
R Mall
*The Scott County Republican party failed to field a County Auditor candidate, a key position that Democrats covet for good reason but republicans neglect. No race, no yard signs.
** Our Trump yard sign was pulled and thrown into the street but not ruined.
Perhaps I should add, the QC Times endorsing Hillary. If they had endorsed Trump that would cause suspicion about him.