To say the least, Republican turnout in the House 89 special election to be held January 31 needs to be a lot better than the December 27th turnout for the Senate 45 special election.
House 89 voters were part of the vote in that election and are up at bat again. Multi-term House 89 incumbent Democrat Jim Lykam won the Senate election nearly three-to-one to fill the term of Democrat Joe Seng who passed away in the fall.
The election technically could have been held as part of the November general election but the Democrat Auditor complained that ballots were printed and some had been sent out. Besides validating one of the truths that early voting 40 days before the election is bad policy, too bad if the Auditor’s life is complicated a bit. She apparently preferred having to print two ballots for resultant special elections. But we grant that Joe Seng’s death on September 16, was late enough that arguably the special election route was reasonable, we just don’t appreciate as much the purely bureaucratic excuses when Iowa law is flexible enough.
So the Governor acceded and set the Senate special election for December 27, again not unreasonable given the provisions in the Iowa code. We allow that the Governor may have also thought Republican chances were improved in a special election at that time in a heavily Democrat district. That is fine if the party was serious in making it happen, which we saw little evidence of and no effect, so we are not at all sure that was on his mind.
Our candidate Mike Gonzales was and is a good candidate although his political name ID was non-existent compared to Lykam. He also suffered from having to work for a living, a particular handicap when you have to build name ID in what is a substantial territory. But now, having run, and having received the Republican nomination for the House 89 position, he has some name ID, more than his Democrat opponent. However some “leaders” will capitulate based on the Democrat party registration advantage.
But Democrats devoted a tremendous amount of resources to keep “their” Senate seat and regain some face after losing the chamber in November. We have no doubt estimates of $100,000 are low. The Des Moines party apparat made pilgrimages to Davenport and Maryland governor Whatshisname was sent to give Lykam’s election high profile.
While Lykam received 73% of the vote they pulled out all the stops to get that in their own two-to-one registration advantage district. The combined turnout for the district (we do not have figures by party) was 11.75%. Thinking about that ,we ran some numbers and, presuming that the Democrats had turned out all they could in the district (not unreasonable given the resources devoted) we see that had just 25% of Republicans been induced to turnout and vote for Gonzales in the Senate district and 12% of the no-party voters (using targeted messaging) the Republican candidate would have carried the day. A 20% Republican/ 15% No Party turnout would also work. The turnout overall in the district in the November was 72%.
Slightly easier percentages apply to the House 89 race even if the Democrats perform as well and that may be overestimating them as they may not be as incentivized, and they do not have a candidate as well known among Democrats.
So we hope the state and local Republican apparat will step up and devote the resources to contact every Republican and unaffiliated voter in the district. We are not aware at this writing how much the State Party devoted to the Senate race, but we see that the Scott County Party gave a lousy $750 in the initial disclosure report, all the while bragging they are sitting on a nice war chest after the general. In the constricted period of a special election the candidate has no time to raise money, local and state parties have to step up generously. How does the party expect to get good candidates if they do not support them?
Given the particular situation, at this stage paid canvassers are key. That is what the Democrats likely used in earnest. Three with a goal to knock 3000 doors could do the trick. Crank up the issue mailings, the phones, and other advertising. Help the guy out, look at it as a party building investment R Mall
Democrats threw resources at Iowa Senate 45 special election. Paid hacks and those whose religion is to drill ever deeper into other people’s pockets. Shown supporting one of the most pro-abortion legislators in Iowa (Jim Lykam between signs) is former Davenport Mayor “never met an ardent pro-abort I couldn’t support” Bill “Mr. Progressive Catholic” Gluba (back, center)
