His gal Monica wins
Republican leadership wasn’t interested, a pat on the back and “have at it” is about all they mustered for their candidate.*
Yesterday’s vote in the special election in West Davenport was dismal and should be embarrassing for the Republican apparat, not the candidate.
The election was to fill the seat vacated by Jim Lykam who moved to the State Senate (SD45) after winning the special election for that race instigated by the death of Joe Seng. The district is approximately 36% registered Democrat and 23% registered Republican and 42% “independent”. Assuming that the no-party voters break in the same ratio as the Democrat/ Republican split, and that they all turn-out at the same rate, whatever that happens to be for that election (both are only rough presumption and perhaps increasingly variable) then, with no special effort by one or the other party, the election might be expected to result in a 61% to 39% split in favor of the Democrat. The weak hitters say don’t bother.
But special elections are special animals and low turn-out can be expected across the board, resulting in an opportunity for the minority party to out-perform and win and by doing so help push the party complexion of the district. It need not be a matter of winning only to be defeated in the next election. Regardless of that, the margin in every legislative session can be crucial at different times and for different votes. The games is supposed to be winning the hearts and minds of people and changing perceptions and turning them into Republicans. The Democrats thought it important to fight to keep the complexion from Republican influences realizing ratios are not static and because of their vulnerabilities in a special election.
Republican leadership appears to have pretty much blown it off or were incredibly ineffective. The voting results were 72.41% for the Sanders Democrat and 27.28% for the virtually unfunded Republican Mike Gonzales, a significant under-performance for Republicans. The overall turnout for the special election was 13.2%. The November general election turnout in the same district was 72% (overall). Assuming the Democrats who invested heavily to keep the seat in their “own” district pretty much did the best they could to get the turnout they got in the special election, and based on some rough figuring, if only 25% or so of Republicans and 15% or so of like-minded independents would have been induced to vote Gonzales, he would have prevailed.
We read that Gonzales was not inclined to go negative but our understanding in talking to him prior to the State Senate race was that his demurral related to distortions of his opponent’s record. Frankly telling the truth about Democrats is all the negative you need but trying to be sensational or exaggerate or distort is a turn-off to many. That is the problem when the likes of Victory Enterprises is involved which, we see from the financial disclosures, may have been the case in that race.
Maybe Gonzales was a bit too shy but we have no doubt a simple comparison of Republican and Democrat platforms on key issues, and identifying and targeting people with an affinity for certain of those issues in the district, would have produced the numbers necessary. Given the constricted time frame, an adequate investment in paid canvassers would be required to get the job done. That is what the Democrats did. A working-stiff candidate can not be expected to have the time to do all the door knocking or calling that is necessary.
Mike Gonzales was/is a good candidate. He educated himself in the issues and garnered the endorsement of the QC Times editorial board, no small task for a Republican no matter how bad the Democrat is. The QCT put forth better arguments for his election than we saw put forth by the local Republican apparat. Of course that apparat offered little or none. That Gonzales would be part of the majority and better able to influence matters on behalf of the district (the QCT key point) was not a featured point by partisans that we are aware of. Presuming the focus of such arguments are Republicans and targeted independents along with other key issue motivations, that might have been compelling.
We also read a report that Gonzales would have been the first Hispanic in the state legislature in Iowa but that was not part of the QC Times endorsement, as they never mentioned it . Mike did not run as an Hispanic but as a concerned citizen of the state and nation. Regardless, the Party appears to have short-changed him. The Scott County Republican Central Committee(SCRCC), by the reports reviewed at this writing, only provided $750 to Gonzales in the House race (and the same amount in the Senate race).
The Scott County Democrats gave $2500 and arranged for TENs of thousands of dollars in cash and in-kind aid for their candidate, friend of Bernie Sanders’ front group “Our Revolution”, Monica Kurth. The SCRCC lack of seriousness was at a time when it was sitting on over $50,000 in the bank. We will report on the Iowa GOP effort as/if it becomes clear in the record. Given their dominance in the state and associated ability to raise funds, if the RPI and others were not in combination at the $50,000 level, which is still less than the cash and in-kind level showered on Kurth, then their effort was unserious, equivocating or pathetic.
If Republican interests did provide adequate funding, did make cogent arguments, did provide funds for canvasing then they did their best. But if Republicans wanted a contrivance candidate for appearances or to make the Democrats spend money at no effort by the Republicans or the candidate, then such a “candidate” could have been found and no one’s time or efforts abused. Republicans cannot expect serious candidates in any election without supporting them.
R Mall
*This article represents the opinions of veritaspac, any presumption as to any other person or entity is false.
Note: this report has had a link and some commentary added after the original post
SCR and RPI
Ships sailing for the benefit of the crew?