- A vibrant economy breeds and protects and enhances life
In reading the articles set forth below from Townhall, a couple of hypotheticals occurred to us.
China has lost thousands of people to the Wuhan virus but the statistic is irrelevant to this hypothetical. Given that China will sacrifice its own people to politics (war fought by other means) for any number of reasons — deflection, plausible deniability, subterfuge, whatever so we disregard that as a countervailing point to the following:
1) If the Wuhan virus could have been confined to the US and not affected the world economy on which China depends, could China have strategized a better bio-warfare result against its main antagonist to world economic supremacy — the US? Ironically the economic result extends not so much from the virus itself but from the hysteria surrounding it? Because of its effect on its most important single trading partner I doubt China intentionally issued the the virus. That said its criminal cover-up is something to be reckoned with. What should it be?
2) The leading killer respiratory disease in this country is related to smoking. This is not a apples to apples comparison but there are aspects that are perhaps in some respects tangerine to orange? You might get a taste of the hypothetical thought process reading this excerpt from the publication Very Well Health, a peer reviewed publication:
Updated on November 15, 2019
Most statistics look at the overall risk of lung cancer, combining both people who smoke and those who have never smoked. Based on United States statistics, the lifetime risk that a person will develop lung cancer is 6.3% or a little greater than one out of every 15 people.1
Clearly, this number would be higher for those who have smoked and lower for those who haven’t. We have very few studies which have broken these numbers down between never smokers, former smokers, and current smokers, but an older 2006 European study did make these distinctions. In that study, the risk of developing lung cancer was:2
• 0.2% for men who never smoked; 0.4% for women
• 5.5% of male former smokers; 2.6% in women
• 15.9% of current male smokers; 9.5% for women
• 24.4% for male “heavy smokers” defined as smoking more than five cigarettes per day; 18.5% for women
Compare mortality figures from having acquired lung cancer (not good but less than the figures above) with the worst case scenarios we have been told about COVID19. A virus is infectious to others, a key difference, but second-hand smoke has a supposed mortality associated with it. Are there lessons for acceptable regulations in comparing the two? Smoking is something that is obvious but the response to lowering its mortality has been both directed at the smoker and people around them. Related reading here.
Moving on to the articles that triggered the questions above (which we have no answers for) are these which also pose important questions, issues or dilemmas:
Derek Hunter at Townhall writes:
Predicting the future is a tough racket. If people were any good at it, we’d all be multiple lottery winners. Since we aren’t, that’s a pretty good indication that we have the ability to guess what will happen, but possess no clairvoyance. That brings us to today, when the country and the world are shut down over what is expected to happen with the coronavirus. Like everything else, the predictions aren’t panning out. Were this just $2 wasted on a lottery ticket it wouldn’t matter. But are we hurting millions of people and spending trillions of dollars on nothing more than a hunch based on computer models that are wildly inaccurate?
There’s no question the coronavirus is deadly and dangerous, but is it going to kill hundreds of thousands in the US and millions around the world? We have no idea. All we have are guesses. But if you’re going to destroy the economy and severely restrict people’s lives, you’d better have some damn good information backing up your actions. There are questions about the computer models being used to impose just that.
One prominent model in the shutdown is from the University of Washington, from their Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), funded by Bill and Melinda Gates. How closely does what they predicted track with reality so far? Turns out, not so well.
While the reporting data from some states are lagging, others have provided information that calls into question the validity of the whole model, and with it, all the actions taken by government.
On April 4th, for example, the IHME model predicted there would be between 120,963 and 203,436 Americans requiring hospitalization, with the average of that range being 164,745. In reality, there were 18,998.
Before your jaw goes through the floor, it must be noted that not all states have reported their numbers, so the actual total is incomplete. The largest states have reported, so the missing numbers from places like Kansas or even Michigan will add to that total, but still will not get it anywhere near the projections.
That’s just hospitalizations, when it comes to intensive care beds, the difference between the projections and reality show an equally large gap. The average projected ICU beds needed on April 4th was 31,057; the reality was 4,686. That’s across the country, not just New York. Even after factoring in the caveats about missing states, that’s a miss akin to swinging and striking out on a pickoff to second base.
So what other models are federal and state authorities using that justify the actions they’ve taken? The simple, horrifying answer is we just don’t know. The government isn’t sharing their models and data with the public, which is odd.
Mitigation efforts like social distancing and the like may be a factor, but these models supposedly took that into consideration.
Are the modelers making assumptions based on the horrific numbers out of places like Italy? That doesn’t make much sense when you consider the difference between our countries – quality of care, number of ICU beds, average age of citizens, etc.
As of this writing, there are 7,810 deaths in the United States attributed to the pandemic. More than 7,000 Americans die every single day, on average, of everything. Over the course of this pandemic, this has amounted to a noticeable but still mild uptick above that average over the course of it. Add to that the directive from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to count any death tangentially related to COVID-19, and you have to wonder if that number actually holds. That directive reads, “COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death.” (The emphasis in bolding is theirs.)
So what is going on? Where is the truth? Are we on the verge of a massive crush of cases and deaths, or are we destroying ourselves over the equivalent of tarot card reading gone wrong? I don’t know, but I do know we need answers and we need them now.
If we had a media capable of doing their jobs, Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx would be pressed on all of this, hard, at the White House daily briefing. Since we don’t, we get Jim Acosta pulling months old quotes from President Trump attempting a “gotcha” moment that CNN’s audience and Jim’s ego craves. So-called journalists are attacking Fox News for allegedly spreading misinformation, even though they were sounding warning bells back in January, while the rest of the media were busy calling the president a racist for banning travel from China and wasted a week arguing with Republicans over how it was supposedly racist to point out a virus that originated in China originated in China.
Predicting the future is near-impossible. Shutting down a planet based on predictions is crazy, especially when the predictions aren’t coming true in real-time. If in the next week, these numbers from the models don’t start to jive with reality, President Trump needs to seriously consider not only reopening the country but also firing everyone involved in advising him based on those models. If they do start to line up, then may God have mercy on everyone.
Coronavirus is serious and deadly, especially to vulnerable people, but just how serious and deadly is one of many questions we need an answer to, and we need it now.
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Wayne Allen Root also at Townhall opines about what we sense is a growing sentiment :
“I’m mad as hell, and I’m not going to take this anymore.”
Remember that line from the famous American movie “Network”? It’s time for a rebellion. Every out-of-work American and every out-of-business American business owner needs to open their windows and shout it, shout it so loud it reaches President Donald Trump, Congress and every swamp politician from Washington D.C., to New York to Boston to Beverly Hills, California.
It’s time for this madness to stop. Mr. President, do you understand how many suicides of prominent business owners are going to start piling up?
Here in Las Vegas, a business owner closed his business, laid off his 45 employees (with tears in his eyes) and then went home and committed suicide. Did you see that in the news?
It’s happening across America.
Do you understand the pain of the employees? People can’t even get through to file for unemployment benefits. The websites have been down for days on end. No one answers the phones.
Do you understand how many lives are being ruined, how many jobs are being killed, how many great businesses will never reopen? The people are getting desperate and despondent. They have no money for food, rent, gas or survival.
We can’t stay closed. We have to open up the U.S. economy. There is no more time for debate. There is no more room for caution. I have ideas and compromise below.
First, these coronavirus “death counts” have to stop. You’re scaring people half to death. I suggest new kinds of death counts be put up on the screens to compete:
— JOBS KILLED by this complete business shutdown.
— BUSINESSES CLOSED.
— AMERICAN DREAMS DESTROYED.
— SUICIDES.
Another Great Depression will destroy this great nation. And we’re on the way, unless you open this economy again.
And why not open America for business again — with tight restrictions? What is happening now makes absolutely no sense. We are allowed to shop at big-box stores like Costco, Walmart and Home Depot; health food stores like Whole Foods and Sprouts; grocery stores; pet stores; auto part stores; pawn shops; marijuana stores; liquor stores; and gun stores. And get this: Golf courses are open.
If all of that is allowed, why can’t we open all stores and businesses but with the same health precautions and restrictions?
I love and appreciate the UPS drivers and Costco cashiers on the front lines. But if they can work, why can’t the rest of us? Do Costco checkout guys and gals and supermarket cashiers have a big S on their chest? If they can face it and survive, why can’t the rest of us?
The liberal Democratic mayor of Los Angeles, Eric Garcetti, just recommended everyone wear masks and scarves. Isn’t this the compromise to get us all back to work?
Here’s the mantra for the day: Wear a mask. Get back to work!
We need to open the U.S. economy before it’s too late, before we’re all doomed — not from coronavirus but from the fallout of a Great Depression. Here is the compromise. Here are the new rules.
Anyone who wants to stay home can. If you want to collect welfare, food stamps and unemployment, you can. Anyone at high risk — seniors, the sick, the obese, those with illness — should shelter at home.But the rest of us (the working people of America) are willing to take the risk; to keep our businesses alive; to save jobs; to save the economy; to prevent a Great Depression; to prevent mass suicides, alcoholism, drug addiction, poverty and misery.
We can all work — just like the Costco employees and supermarket cashiers and UPS drivers. We can all wear masks. Our customers can wear masks. We can all practice social distancing. Employees can stand six feet apart. Stores can limit customers. New customers can be allowed to only go in when others leave. We can sanitize our workplaces and stores like never before.
It’s time to start organizing a mega call campaign to President Trump, Congress and local politicians across this country. It’s time to tell them that the American people want to take precautions, that we’ll accept restrictions but we need to get back to work. Or we’re holding you accountable for ruining our jobs, careers, businesses, dreams, lives.
The pandemic is horrible. But we can’t keep the economy closed. Your caution and fear are killing our lives more than any pandemic. The politicians are destroying America.
Shout it: “I’m mad as hell, and I’m not going to take this anymore!”
