Fauchi as secret weapon of Yankee haters — here at opening game between the Nats and the Yanks (he also threw out the first pitch)
Fun with Baseball Statistics
By David Hartsuch, MS MD
The probability that a certain batter will hit 3 home runs with 6 times at bat can be calculated using a statistical distribution known as the binomial distribution. This tells us what the likelihood of k events occurring out of n independent trials given that p is the probability of each event occurring.
Let’s consider the Yankees–Not batting averages but their recent COVID-19 outbreak. What are the odds of 8 players out of a roster of 26 “fully vaccinated” players getting COVID-19? Isn’t that what the vaccine is supposed to prevent? The probability should be zero. shouldn’t if?
The “experts” claim that this is due to contact with unvaccinated persons. Could these vaccinated players transmit it to each other? They say this is why we all need to be vaccinated. Let’s test their hypothesis.
The State of New York now registers 486 thousand active cases out of a population of 19.45 million giving us an active infection rate of about 2.5%. Out of a cohort of 26 unvaccinated players we would expect 26 x .025 = .65 players to have COVID-19. The probability of 8 of 26 players to independently get the disease without spreading to each other according to the binomial distribution is 8.1e-9, or effectively zero. This means that the players must have either transmitted it to each other or caught it from a common contact.
A recent new article said that experts claim that the outbreak shows that the vaccine is working. Really? How? The J&J vaccine which the players received touts an 86% efficacy.
A meta-analysis of 22 studies of transmission among family members living in the same household published in October of 202 showed that the overall transmission of COVID-19 among newly diagnosed unvaccinated family members is less than 18%. Assuming the Yankee players are like an unvaccinated family we would only expect 5.5 members sick. ( .18 x25 contacts + one sick member) but if the vaccine is 86% effective that number should drop to 1.6. (.18 x (1-.86) x 25 +1) But according to the binomial distribution the probability of this event assuming one sick player is only 1.2e-07. (again, zero)
The attack rate of the Yankees was 8/26 or 30.8% which is nearly double the 18% transmission rate among family members. Is it possible that the vaccine increases the transmission rate or perhaps we should consider another possibility to which the experts have been silent throughout this pandemic—that the disease is being intentionally spread—bioterrorism. Afterall, the cases arose simultaneously across the country, and have shown linear rather than exponential growth. Normally, a highly contagious disease spreads like wildfire and infects everybody in 16 – 20 weeks and is gone.
This disease stopped spreading soon after the November election and before the introduction of the COVID-19 vaccinations. The number of new cases peaked at 300,000 new cases on Jan. 10th, 2021. At that time, almost no one was vaccinated. By February 17th, the number of new cases fell to 70,000 or only 23% of its peak. However, by that time only 4.7% of the population was fully vaccinated and only 8% of Americans had had the disease leaving 88% of Americans still susceptible. But the experts say that herd immunity can only be reached when everybody is vaccinated.
They say that statistics don’t lie, but what about our experts?\
Maybe the air ball he threw at the Nats/Yanks game was a bio-weapon actually aimed at the Yankee bullpen?!
