Selzer’s full record not as pristine as leftist admirers believe
Referencing Selzer’s final poll prior to the 2024 General election, the one she was so wrong about Trump v Harris, Fox reports she published that:
In the 1st Congressional District, 53% of respondents said they preferred the Democratic candidate, while 37% said they would vote or have already voted for the Republican. Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan, therefore, has a 16-point lead over Republican incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in their 2022 rematch contest.
The actual result was that Republican Miller-Meeks has prevailed albeit narrowly, nevertheless indicating that besides Trump Selzer was 16 points off in her final poll for that race.
In 2022 Selzer early October released her poll of the statewide race for Attorney General, Republican challenger Brenna Bird was said by Selzer to be 16 points behind Tom Miller, the longest serving AG in the country. According to the DMR’s own article:
Forty-nine percent of likely voters say they would vote for Miller, a Democrat, compared with 33% who choose Bird, a Republican.
money shot comes later and it isn’t pretty
Brenna Bird defeated Miller by 1 point , making for a 17 p0int fiasco of a poll for Selzer. True, it was not Selzer’s final poll of the race which then showed a much closer race (still with Brenna loosing) but not to pick up the trend just a couple weeks out is a fools gold standard. There is a game that can be played by pollsters, to bolster or deflate who they want to earlier on, and in order to achieve some credibility provide a more professional poll in the one that is used for comparison to actual voting results — the final poll.
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Regarding the June 2010 Republican primary, Selzer showed Bob Vander Plaats at 29% against then former governor Terry Branstad who she showed at 57% — a 28 point spread.
https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=325152
The primary results were Vander Plaats ~~ 40.9% Branstad 50.3 %. She was off by 18.6 points — clearly unable to evaluate for that race who was likely to turn out, where a candidates support was likely coming from, or lacked any ability (or perhaps desire) to reach them.
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Election lawyer and columnist Orly Taitz produced a chart of Selzer’s performance:
Pollster Ann Selzer was off by as much as 10.5% in prior elections
From the chart, some other races Selzer was in significant error :
In the 2008 Presidential general election Obama v McCain her poll was off 7.5 from the election results which was outside the margin of error for her poll. In the 2006 Iowa congressional race of Braley v Walen she was off 9+, comparing final poll to election results. In the 1998 Vilsack v. Lightfoot race her final poll was off 10 pts to actual. In high profile contentious races either Republicans don’t like to talk to pollsters like Selzer or she is using unrepresentative respondents or has more fliers than her sycophants realize.
