We have been forwarded another fine Web site http://barrycasselman.blogspot.com/ which will join our illustrious blogroll at right. This item from Casselman deals with the regional politics and prospects for Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa, all three battleground states this year. Thanks to DA for the heads-up. Excerpt below, read the full article here.
“If Mitt Romney could win Iowa and Wisconsin in 2012, that alone would be a net gain of 16 electoral votes from 2008. Combined with the current Republican lead in Indiana and good prospects for the GOP in Ohio (both these states voted for
Obama in 2008), this region could produce just under half the electoral votes the GOP nominee would need to overtake the incumbent president. Most of the other (and larger) half could come from the combined electoral votes of Virginia, North
Carolina and Florida, three southern states which also voted Democratic in 2008.”
And we look forward to a series of his analysis about why 2012 is not 2008. Here is a taste of his first installment that can better be fulfilled here.
I am coming to the conclusion, that apart from some obvious comparisons, the conventional rules of U.S. presidential elections will be largely upturned in 2012 . . .
Mitt Romney is not John McCain. Although Senator McCain was clearly a much-admired figure for his Viet Nam war experiences as a soldier and prisoner of war, and for his service in the U.S. senate, he lacked ironically the combative nature to wage a tough election campaign against Mr. Obama, There was also perhaps no viable strategy to overcome the mortgage banking
crisis that appeared so close to the election; Mr. McCain’s strategy to suspend his campaign might have been one of the worst alternatives available to him.
