Can / will Republican leadership press the advantage?
Today’s Wall Street Journal reports on current Pew Research findings.
The Demographics Behind the Democrats’ 2014 Troubles:
The (Democrat) party is losing support among whites, millennials and independents.
According to the article, among likely voters, there is a strong GOP lead, perhaps foretelling a repeat of 2010’s banner year for Republicans, this time including gaining the U.S. Senate. For that and more we pray. The WSJ – Pew report states that:
Democrats trail Republicans among independents by 38% to 44%, according to Pew’s February survey. Democrats also lost the independent vote in the 2012 presidential election, 45% to 50%, according to national exit polls. In other words, President Obama owed his re-election victory to his base.
The corollary to that statistic would seem to be that Republicans lost in 2012 because of problems with their base. Granted the Republican base is smaller but given what it was, the advantage with independents and enthusiasm from the Republican base should have been enough to carry the day. But the Republican establishment insisted on a top of the ticket candidate that could not or would not credibly press Obama’s and Democrat weaknesses. Or, the republican establishment in combination ran a campaign that did not do so effectively.
Turn out is not about reminding theoretically Republican leaning voters for the one hundredth time that there is an election and to vote Republican. It is about message, . . . and the credibility of the Party doing the messsaging . . . it is about generating enthusiasm and pressing home genuine negatives about the opponent’s performance and intentions. It is about inspiration. The Republican base was insufficiently inspired. It is inspiration that is the real “turnout” trick . . . not the umpteenth content free reminder to “vote early.” True, they should have been “inspired” on their own, but they were not.
Two years later, and the negatives about Democrat policies are sinking in. Less so thanks to Republican Party efforts, more so by Democrat policy failures and conservatives and their organizations doing the informative and motivational grassroots work. Combine that with the historic advantage of Republicans in mid terms elections . . . the number of races Democrats must defend that are in reddish purple states . . .throw in Obama fatigue among Democrats and independents . . . and Republicans should see gains just for being not Democrats. Indeed according to the current Pew polling :
Opinion of the president is probably the greatest problem for Democrats this year. At 44%, Mr. Obama’s overall approval rating about matches President Bush’s rating in early 2006 when Republicans lost Congress. And it is not too different from Mr. Obama’s own approval in 2010—45%—when the GOP regained the House.
So how will the Republican establishment press that advantage? By allowing Obamacare to take hold? By promoting or going along with immigration reform that is widely perceived as amnesty . . . a matter that is of low saliency now even among Hispanics but will serve Democrats enormously in the future? By not talking about winning cultural /social issues that are key to much of the Republican base’s loyalties? By walking away from the same Republican base issues that were on the table in 2012 which resulted in a substantial advantage with independents then?
Such is the Republican establishment plan demonstrated at various levels.
Accordingly, do not underestimate the power of the Republican K Street oriented establishment, and the fellow travelers and hand wringers in the state and local establishments, to attenuate and even blow the potential victory.
Nor should we underestimate the “success” of the Democrat strategy of increasing dependency, the Republicans establishment having rolled over oh so many years, and the fearfulness that can induce. Be assured, Democrats will use fear. But what will the Republican establishment’s response be and their advice to candidates? At the national state and local levels we see muted defensive “we are not so bad” responses . . . locally we see the gutting of a responsive platform . . . and everywhere we hear the oh so inspirational corporate response . . . “we are a big tent . . . put us in charge of Democrat policies.” R Mall
