Definition – Rovians – Karl Rove acolytes. Provocative title? Yes . . . and now that we have your attention please read on.
Craig Robinson, Editor of The Iowa Republican (TIR) posted a worrisome article yesterday: Polls Show a Tied U.S. Senate Race – And Ominous Signs for Ernst Campaign. It is worrisome in that we had developed some optimistic feelings based on our view that while Democrat candidate Congressman Bruce Braley’s record should be enough to defeat him, his campaign blunders have provided a Republican challenger a cashe of material to thrash him. The somewhat roller coaster emotions we have had about the race started with foreboding based on observations from the primary campaign that Ernst would not be articulate enough to advocate for her own positions or aggressive enough to defeat Braley.
We heartily agree with most points made in Robinson’s analysis of the Ernst / Braley messaging battle to date, and what needs to be done. However we would emphasize at least one point far more, the issue of illegal immigration. Robinson only had this to say about the matter in his lengthy campaign analysis:
Both U.S. Senate campaigns have avoided the current issues that are being discussed in the county. Neither candidate has weighed in on the immigration debate, U.S. involvement in the Middle East, or the civil unrest in Ferguson, Missouri. The lack of focus on issues in the race may be the reason why Ernst slightly trails Braley when people are asked which candidate’s values most closely match your own. Ernst doesn’t really talk about moral issues, and when she did in a Washington Post interview earlier this month, Ernst ran to the middle instead of espousing the conservative ideals she campaigned on in the primary.
“The thing is” the saliencey of the issue has risen greatly in the last couple of months due to news about the Central American border rushers and the abuse of American anti- trafficking law. It is now the most mentioned issue by Republicans (important to turn out the base) and Republican leaners. The matter has risen to #4 among Democrats. We would suggest that the additional concerns are not regarding the need to grant amnesty or pathways to citizenship even among Democrats. Blue collar Democrats are also concerned about the impact of open borders on jobs and welfare spending. Indeed we have heard little from the Ernst campaign in broadcast media tying Braley to Obama and Pelosi and Reid and the negatives that abide among energized voters regarding them.
So why isn’t the Ernst campaign giving more attention to the hot button border control issue or done better on issues in general ? We think it is the influence of Karl Rove, his screwed up focus group oriented research , and the Ernst acceptance of an endorsement from The United States Chamber of Commerce.
The Rove report — “Republicans and Women Voters: Huge Challenges, Real Opportunities” — according to Politico “was the product of eight focus groups across the country and a poll of 800 registered female voters this summer.” We would say anything relying on focus groups (more manipulable than a Grand Jury) and 800 registered voters (no indication that they are likely voters) is pretty much unreliable. We suspect it more an effort by Rove to “validate” his own political predispositions.
The U.S Chamber of Commerce is now notorious in support of amnesty and a pathway to citizenship whose components essentially reward or minimize illegal behavior at the expense of tax payers, citizen job seekers, law-abiding immigrants and prospective immigrants. Is their influence with monied but manipulable big donors more important than taking the good fight to the Democrats. So far, it seems so.
Again with the matter of early voting . . .
The last point in the overall excellent analysis in TIR article is the weakest. Regrettably it has become virtual cant from too many Republican operatives. Robinson had this to say harmonizing with the early voting chorus of presumptions.
While it is still early, absentee request by Democrats and no party voters are far exceeding Republican requests. This is once again a sign that Democrats are working their absentee program that has often times made the difference in close legislative races.
If it matters any that Democrats are supposedly ahead of Republicans in early voting now, it is only because Republican efforts to inoculate the voting public in general have been so weak over the summer. The actual Republican effort at least in the early stages in Scott County had no provision for motivating literature to vote Republican. It was essentially knock on doors and hector the resident to request an absentee ballot. If you have no message maybe that is all you can do. May we suggest instead of If the U.S. Senate race remains a close contest, their ability to get no party voters to vote early for their candidates could make a big difference . . . rather . . . If the US Senate remains a close contest it is because otherwise Republican leaning voters were provided no effective reason to vote at all.
We have written periodically about the wastefulness and misdirection of early voting efforts by Republicans. Read more here and through our on site search feature.
And one more thing . . .
Where is the “Towel Boy” commercial by Ernst or her supporters? This article in the Washington Free Beacon provides so many target rich quotes with vast implications in the satirical political realm we cannot fathom it has not been a mainstay. Perhaps tie it to Braley’s concerns over lack of spending on his towel service subsidy vs spending on a pool that was part of the Iraq rebuilding effort? Speaking of water, does he have any concerns over ISIL designs for the Mosul Dam?
And another . . .
Pro-Braley ads are prominent now trying to do a negative number on Ernst associating her with Sarah Palin, who endorsed Ernst in the primary. We only wish the associated persona were more apt. Ernst would win for sure.
R Mall w/ DLH
