We awoke this morning (an hour early this changeover day) to news that a Des Moines Register (DMR) Poll shows Joni Ernst leading Bruce Baley Braley by seven points. Thanks to VM for first sending the eye opener. So what are we to think in our sober waking hour? The DMR pollster J Ann Selzer says “this race looks decided.” That would be delightful particularly if the margin holds although we would appreciate any favorable margin.
We believe (as others have observed) that liberal outlets like the DMR play all manner of games early on with their polling in order to “trend” or influence the election. They are often still wrong later on particularly in their analysis but are more assiduous in trying to get it right. The pollsters (and papers) do not want a reputation of getting the last call wrong, which is the one most remember. Well that is the theory anyway of realpolitik in America.
Our illustrious Senior Editor DLH has remarked that a Republican needs to be ahead maybe five points in the final polling in order to eke out a win of one or two points. Democrats can cheat enough to bring their guy over the top in a closer race by their time proven tactics of absentee dumps and challenging the results of the close ones and then counting until they win. We agree.
Would it work, forgoing institutional pride, for the DMR to call such a race at that margin in order to depress Republican voters who tend to vote more heavily than Democrats on the final polling day? The idea being to instil a “no need to vote attitude” into them with the hope of gearing up Democrat voters? Contra that, their published final polling margin will not help the Democrats claim that a narrower Republican win needs to be recounted. But who knows what goes on in their reptilian brains. Democrats will do anything they think they can get away with. They will spin what ever they do with the help or influence of the DMR.
We will have more to say but if this holds we think it due to a triumph of yeoman reporting and increasing influence of conservative media outlets and outside independent issue groups making the case against Braley and Democrats in general. The official Ernst campaign prior to vote starting was much too tepid stuff or narrow in focus creating no great change momentum. Outside groups made the case early on to dump Braley much more strongly and varied than the Ernst campaign. Her campaign did improve however and Joni Ernst did achieve more credibility from the debates than we would have predicted. An upcoming article will have commentary regarding what to expect from a Republican U.S. Senate majority (which is not assured even at this writing). R Mall
