Presidential handicaps and handicapping

• Scott Walker
• Jeb Bush
• Sarah Palin
  

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Throughout the nation the conservative commentariat  has been singing praises for Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. An earned reputation precedes him. The rousing speech the conservative governor gave at the Congressman Steve King / Citizens United Freedom Summit two weeks ago in Des Moines personally validated for the influential conservative attendees that he is the “real deal.”  The additional praise and publicity received has “established” Walker in the current top echelon of Republicans weighing presidential runs.

A Des Moines Register / Bloomberg poll released over the weekend of likely Iowa caucus attendees quantifies the early sentiment toward the various talked about candidacies.  Of course polls this early in the process are notoriously volatile (remember Michelle Bachmann).

Scott Walker leads tight GOP pack in new Iowa Poll

In truth the entire line-up of speakers at King’s Freedom Summit were very compelling. Polling results from active Republicans (beyond those in attendance) are vulnerable to the most recent electoral success  associated with the candidates because of the earned media and related “buzz.”  Walker is the only one in the DMR poll who was on the ballot anywhere in November and his was a very closely watched race.  Also keep in mind that none of the comparisons (read negatives) generated by competitors from up and running campaigns are in effect. Mark Jacobs led polls in Iowa this time last year. It didn’t last.  Fortunately for the country, Scott Walker’s conservative bona fides are deep as are other of the talked about candidates.

Bush III

With Mitt Romney deciding against another run for president, conventional wisdom might suggest that other establishment favorites stand to benefit. We posted thoughts by Dick Morris a few days ago on the help or hurt implications for  Republican establishment associated Jeb Bush in seeking the Republican nomination.  Ben Domenech writing at The Federalist expressed similar views. Excerpt:

So who benefits from this, and who is harmed? Somewhat ironically, it may be Jeb himself who takes a small hit over this. Bear with me here: with Romney in the race, Jeb would’ve had an opportunity to contrast himself as a fresh face, a break with the past of the GOP in a healthy way. He would’ve had to deal with a split establishment donor base, of course, but he will still have to deal with that anyway (Chris Christie and others are already scrambling for Romney bundlers). Romney would not have been able to win the nomination this time around, and he actually could’ve proven to be a useful foil for Jeb.

And in Romney’s absence, at least for the moment, the other candidates many Romney backers find acceptable – such as Christie, Walker, and to some extent Rubio – benefit more than Jeb

The establishment donor class and resigned Romney supporters the last presidential election are not the same animal, today anyway.  The latter’s presumptions and confidence in the capabilities of establishment approved candidates took a beating. Further, the hold your nose and vote sentiment of much of the conservative base will not be available to be depended upon by Republicans this go around.  Confidence by the conservative base in the Republican Party and especially its legislative leadership is very low. To keep the conservative base the presidential nominee must be a conservative fighter.

Sarah Palin derangement syndrome is catching

Liberals have chronically held on to it, coughing and sputtering their invectives, without regard to decency, never ever giving Palin a break.  Strangely, reading around, in spite of a very sought after and winning endorsement record by Palin this past year, elements of the Republican party are out to excise her.

There is obviously fear, even abject panic, in both Democrat and Establishment GOP camps that Sarah Palin will again be an influential participant (most likely), if not a presidential candidate, in the 2016 campaign.

The attacks, unique in coming this early, are vicious and universal by both of these entities. Republicans desirous of holding on to conservative base and conservative “independents” should take an honest look at this…and the truly honest among them be appalled while giving thoughtful attention to Palin’s background and her message.

Obviously, that won’t be easy with all the money and media influence marshaled for these attacks.

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