Five states held an election yesterday, two of them, Florida and Ohio, ostensibly had three favorite sons running, in Florida Marco Rubio and Donald Trump (who divides his time there and is well-known), and of course John Kasich is Ohio’s well established governor. Efforts by others in those two states means they are up against years of free media and in-state loyalty.
A Rubio or Kasich path to the nomination was known to be remote weeks before the election. For Rubio, a close plurality win in Florida (a plurality winner-take-all state) was the most he could have dreamed of (although no polling sustained the fantasy) and in our humble opinion would not have given him a national boost because he is a native son. The same is true for Kasich in Ohio although he did meet expectations of winning there.
So neither Kasich or Rubio by winning their home state advance much by winning, only bare survival. Of course Rubio failed and has now suspended his campaign (he should end it, period).
While it would have been tough, even unlikely, for Cruz to beat Trump in Florida with Rubio and Kasich out of the race it was at least conceivable. Trump garnered 45.8%. If the non-Trump vote largely consolidated in Cruz, 45.9% would have been enough for all the delegates.
In Ohio that state’s favorite son “won” all delegates by achieving a plurality of 46.8%. But as with Trump in Florida, more voters wanted someone else. Given Kasich’s reluctance to say he would support Trump should Trump be the nominee, the gracious and good order of the Party thing to do would have been to, ideally endorse Cruz , or simply bow out.
Rubio told his supporters in Ohio to vote for Kasich (Kasich did not return the favor as regards Florida). Given his prospects, he should have pleaded with Kasich to drop out and help the contra-Trump candidate with the most support nationwide — Ted Cruz — and create useful momentum for him.
That neither Kasich or Rubio dropped out before yesterday tells us they were content with a stronger possibility of a disruptive brokered convention and summer. No doubt on the whim that they would be the resultant nominee or other receive other political emolument from holding on. It was their right not to drop out, it is probably a fantasy to imagine they would have, but it was the weakest “strategy” to achieve party unity, and defeat Hillary.
Of the three other state races yesterday — Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, — Illinois and Missouri were winner-take-all (or some hybrid) and North Carolina was proportional in awarding delegates to the national convention. Trump “won” all three with plurality scores in the 39% to 41% range. Again more voters wanted someone other than Trump. In Missouri, Cruz was within .2% (point two) of surpassing Trump’s plurality and very close in North Carolina.
In all three states, given the hardening of the remaining Kasich and Rubio campaign support to being anti-Trump, Kasich or Rubio dropping out would likely have assured that Cruz would prevail. Trump would still have garnered delegates among the five states, but even if we presume Trump would still have prevailed in Florida in that delegate rich winner-take-all contest, Cruz would have been helped enough overall to better ensure that the party has a clear winner going into the convention with the best outlook for unified support against Hillary — Ted Cruz.
On the horizon
One thing we do not believe is that “immigration” is not high as a salient issue on the primaries as some have suggested. We believe Trump support collapses but for it. It will be interesting to watch the trajectory of Kasich “likely primary voter” support now that his pro-amnesty views are more out there and that he does not support ending birth citizenship (and the attendant anchor baby implications). Kasich colors are now more vivid, to his political detriment.
Rubio support (regardless of his personal support) will mostly go to Cruz, that is if they sincerely believed he was not for amnesty and support his other conservative positions.
It is of significance that most of the remaining state contests are not open primary contests. This is some advantage to Cruz as compared to Trump and Kasich, no matter what sector of the country.
More reading:
A Big Night for One Man Nate Jackson at Patriot Post:
Tuesday’s five primaries are in the books (almost), and Donald Trump walked away with three big wins and a virtual tie. The big one, of course, was winner-take-all Florida. Trump won “yuge” over the Sunshine State’s hometown boy, Marco Rubio, and the latter dropped out after his shellacking. Ted Cruz fought Trump to a draw in Missouri (as we go to press, the two are separated by just 1,800 votes). But the night was a good one for the frontrunner in just about every way. “You explain it to me, because I can’t,” Trump said to his supporters. “I don’t understand it. Nobody understands it.”
Actually, we totally understand it, and we have from the beginning.
John Kasich won his home state of Ohio (his first and only victory), giving him all the justification he wanted for staying in the race. Yet he sounded delusional declaring, “I may go to the convention before this is over with more delegates than anybody else.” Unless Trump and Cruz both drop out today, that’s not going to happen. Nonetheless, Kasich’s strategy surely must be to keep fighting for a brokered convention where he can either hope for a lifeline from the party’s establishment or play kingmaker with his delegates.
“In the meantime, however,” writes David French, “he’ll split the anti-Trump vote even further, allowing Trump to continue to win contest after contest with a plurality of voters. It’s self-serving, it’s vain, and it’s Kasich.”
Likewise, Rubio’s decision to stay in the race despite looming defeat everywhere undoubtedly cost Cruz wins in Missouri and North Carolina.
According to Fox News, Trump now leads with 661 delegates to Cruz’s 406. Kasich has 142 — fewer than the departed Rubio’s 169. Winning the nomination requires 1,237 delegates, and Trump is on pace to fall 100 short. At the same time, Cruz isn’t mathematically eliminated and he could get to Cleveland with a lead, but it would take a miracle for him to win the nomination outright.
So we’re faced with the paradox of a frontrunner and likely nominee who by all appearances is very weak in the general election, even against an all-but-convicted felon in Hillary Clinton, but who is handily beating everyone in the Republican field. What does that say about the Republican Party? Not much.
There are rumblings of a third-party run regardless of who wins the GOP nomination. That’s because the more Trump wins, the more entrenched voters who oppose him become — more than a third of voters Tuesday said they’d go third party if Trump wins. And if the nomination is “stolen” from Trump at the convention, his supporters will bolt because everything they ever thought about the party establishment will be confirmed. Not only that, but Trump himself thinks “you’d have riots” if he doesn’t win. Welcome to 2016.
Going Forward — Gary Bauer at Campaign for Working Families
Here’s something to keep in mind as the race goes forward: Trump’s average vote in the states he won last night totaled just 41%. The vast majority of Republican primary voters are still looking for an alternative to Trump.
With 397 delegates, Senator Cruz is the closest to Trump and the only remaining candidate with a real chance of winning the nomination outright.
Kasich, even after winning all of Ohio’s 66 delegates, has only 142 delegates. Even if Kasich won every single delegate up for grabs in the remaining primary contests — 946 — he would still be 149 delegates short of winning the nomination.
Sadly, there is more talk about a rump GOP third party bid when the obvious choice should be uniting behind the one conservative in the race who can win — Senator Ted Cruz.
R Mall
