Swings happen

  • Hillary, don’t start planning on new drapes for the White House at taxpayer expense just yet, whether or not you actually want them for Chappaqua.
  • Those who say its over, Hillary has won, because of an average lead in the polls in August are wrong
  • Current polling is showing great volatility

Dick Morris’s history video segment points out how polls in August do not reliably foretell the presidential winner.  As recited by Morris:

In 1980 Reagan was down 16 points in August polling and went on to win by 10 — a 26 point swing.

In 1988 Dukakis lead by 17 in August but H W Bush went on to win by 8 —  a 25 point swing.

In 2000 Gore led G W Bush by 16 points, Gore ended up winning the popular vote by only 1/2 point, a 15 1/2 point swing with Bush winning the electoral college and the election.

In 2004 Kerry was 5 points ahead of G W Bush in the August polls but lost by 3 percentage points — an 8 point swing.

Morris goes on to point out some of the factors that caused the dramatic swings. He wants the information out to prevent despondency and reactionary campaign decision-making.

Mike Vespa writing at Town Hall points out that Clinton has nosedived, dropping 7 points in just three days.

R Mall

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