- Rasmussen shows Trump in lead
- USC/LA Times also has Trump in lead
- NBC/WSJ shows large gap for Hillary over Trump closing
- Our analysis — relative turn-out among blue-collar men key, women realizing Hillary is no friend might reduce their turn-out.
- Alternate media saving Trump’s bacon (he is sure not getting any help from liberal mainstream media)
Rasmussen (excerpt)
Thursday, October 13, 2016 – The full results from Sunday night’s debate are in, and Donald Trump has come from behind to take the lead over Hillary Clinton.
The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 41%. Yesterday, Clinton still held a four-point 43% to 39% lead over Trump, but that was down from five points on Tuesday and her biggest lead ever of seven points on Monday.
. . . Monday’s survey was the first following the release of an 11-year-old video showing Trump discussing women in graphic sexual detail but did not include any polling results taken after the debate. All three nights of the latest survey follow Sunday’s debate.
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has dropped slightly to six percent (6%) support, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein holds steady at two percent (2%). Four percent (4%) still like some other candidate in the race, and another four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Eighty-four percent (84%) now say they are certain how they will vote in this year’s presidential election, and among these voters, Trump posts a 49% to 46% lead over Clinton. Among voters who say they still could change their minds between now and Election Day, it’s Clinton 40%, Trump 37%, Johnson 19% and Stein four percent (4%).
More of Rasmussen’s analysis here
The latest poll write-up employs a number of graphs indicating month to month trends for their demographic and other inquiries. All are interesting three of which we append here.
Excerpt of analysis by Armand Emamdjomeh and David Lauter
The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” poll tracks about 3,000 eligible voters until election day, asking on a regular basis about their support for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump or other candidates as well as their likelihood of actually casting a ballot.
We update the data each day based on the weighted average of poll responses over the previous week. That means results have less volatility than some other polls, but also means the poll lags somewhat in responding to major events in the campaign. More about the poll and why it differs from others.
Where the presidential race stands today
In the graph below, note the margin of women for Hillary over Trump is 7.9% . The margin of men for Trump over Hillary is 8.6%
The USC.LA Times poll (graph not shown here) shows somewhat more definiteness or enthusiasm for Trump as compared to Hillary. Turn-out indications for each candidate are very close. Note that the vote for Trump or vote for Hillary indications are well within the margin of error of the poll. Trump could be 5 or more points ahead or that much behind.
The Federalist reported on the latest NBC/WSJ poll (why not the others?). That poll shows Hillary’s lead post second debate has narrowed in spite of the pounding of Trump by liberal media after further revelations about Trump’s locker-room mouth. All along in Hilary’s corner, they of course focused on that as an excuse to ignore Wikileaks revelations about Hillary that by rights should put nails in her political coffin.
In the head-to-head responses, their results show Clinton’s pre-debate lead of 14 percentage points shrinking to just 5 percentage points following the debate. In a four way inquirey that includes Libertarian Gary Johnsom and Green candidate Jill whatsername Clinton has a 6.5-point lead following the debate, compared to an 11-point lead before the debate.
So with the absolute in the tank for Hillary collectively dominant broadcast (and cable) and newspapers “reporting all the news that’s fit for Hillary, and only that, how can it be that Trump’s numbers are so regenerative? Perhaps the liberals are not so dominant in social media as they have been in the past and conservatives have taken more to it, combined with how easy it is caricature the Clintons, which social media is made to order for. More conservative original-source news operations have come into being as well. Some how the truth gets out.
R Mall
