- What is your handicap for the process
IF HOUSE VOTES TO IMPEACH TRUMP, ISN’T IT A ‘DONE DEAL’ THAT HE WON’T BE CONVICTED BY THE REPUBLICAN-CONTROLLED SENATE?
NO! It is not a “done deal”. For the Senate to convict and remove from office the president requires a two thirds vote by the Senate. Currently (as of 2019) there are 53 GOP senators, 47 Democrats and Independents.
We believe that it is largely undisputed that all Democrats and Independents (47) would vote to convict.
We also believe that the generally accepted ‘wisdom’ is that all the Republican senators (53) would vote to acquit!
That “wisdom” we don’t believe! It would take 20 Republican ‘defections’ to get to conviction. Below we count 16 GOP senators who, quite likely, we think, would vote against President Trump. Some of these we contend are “sure” votes for conviction (Romney certainly is one). Others, we believe are “likely” to vote for conviction (Susan Collins, Cory Gardner?). Most of the others we list are “maybe s”.
There are some on our list of ‘probables’ or ‘possibles’ who, in the end will stick with the president. There are others, however, not on our list who, when it gets to ‘crunch time’, may wind up on the “convict” side.
Below are two ‘lists’. The first is a roster of GOP senators who just announced their support of a ‘bi-partisan coalition’ that is “begging” President Trump to withdraw his “cap” on refugees admitted to the US and to “admit as many refugees into the United States as possible next year.”
In a letter dated August 5 — before Trump announced he would lower the refugee resettlement cap to a maximum of 18,000 admissions for Fiscal Year 2020 — Senators James Lankford (R-OK) and Chris Coons (D-DE) led a group of lawmakers to ask that the president increase the number of refugees resettled in the U.S. every year beyond the current year’s 30,000 admissions ceiling.
The lawmakers called reports “alarming” that the Trump administration would halt the refugee resettlement program for Fiscal Year 2020 for national security reasons and said the U.S. has a responsibility, above all else, to be compassionate.
As a major element of Trump’s 2016 election campaign, he promised to limit the number of immigrants, and, especially to halt the flood of illegal immigrants coming into the country. I believe that virtually all the GOP senators who are part of this coalition can be considered likely to support the impeachment and conviction of President Trump.
Sen. James Lankford (R-OK)
Sen. John Thune (R-SD)
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD)
Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH)
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)
Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO)
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO)
Add to this list, in my opinion, the following:
– Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA)
– Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS)
– Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC)
– Sen. Willard Romney (R-UT)
– Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT)
– Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
– Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE)
Here’s what Breitbart reported on this story of the “coalition”:
“In a letter dated August 5 — before Trump announced he would lower the refugee resettlement cap to a maximum of 18,000 admissions for Fiscal Year 2020 — Senators James Lankford (R-OK) and Chris Coons (D-DE) led a group of lawmakers to ask that the president increase the number of refugees resettled in the U.S. every year beyond the current year’s 30,000 admissions ceiling.
“Likewise, the lawmakers called reports “alarming” that the Trump administration would halt the refugee resettlement program for Fiscal Year 2020 for national security reasons and said the U.S. has a responsibility, above all else, to be compassionate to the world’s migrants:
“While some Members of Congress have already expressed their displeasure with the FY2019 resettlement cap, and the lower-than-normal admittance numbers for FY2017 and FY2018, eliminating refugee admittance altogether is even more alarming. At a time when we are facing the “highest levels of displacement on record,” according to the United Nations Refugee Agency, we urge you to increase the refugee resettlement cap and to admit as many refugees as possible within that cap. America has a responsibility to promote compassion and democracy around the world through assistance to vulnerable and displaced people. [Emphasis added]
“Though research has found that refugee resettlement to the U.S. costs American taxpayers nearly $9 billion every five years, the lawmakers said surges in refugees are necessary for economic growth.
“The Senators wrote:
“Refugee populations significantly benefit local and national economies. Economists have found that refugees ultimately contribute billions more in taxes than they receive in benefits and that refugees are more likely to start their own businesses and create jobs. In 2015 alone, more than 180,000 refugee-owned enterprises generated $4.6 billion in business income, more than the United States’ annual budget for refugee resettlement.
“Increasing refugee resettlement would have broken from Trump’s initial 2015 and 2016 campaign commitment where he promised to reduce overall immigration to the U.S. His latest reduction of refugee admissions for next year to 18,000 total translates to about an 80 percent cut to former President Obama’s soaring refugee resettlement levels when nearly 85,000 refugees were admitted in a single year.
“Coupled with Trump’s reduction to refugee resettlement is an executive order that will give localities and small American communities veto power over whether they want to absorb large numbers of refugees.
“As Breitbart News’s Michael Patrick Leahy has extensively reported, towns in Tennessee have brought a lawsuit to sue the federal government for resettling refugees in the state without notifying state officials, local communities and residents. Other states like Maine, similarly, have been forced to take inflows of Somali refugees for years with no say in their resettlement.”
What is your handicap for the process?
Even though it is clear to us that there is no impeachable offense, indeed rather everything is consistent with due diligence on the President’s part on all matters raised by Trump’s enemies, such is irrelevant to the Nancy Pelosi controlled House. Impeachment will be a political calculation (however in error or likely to backfire a vote to impeach would be). The decision will be about trying to do the most damage to Trump and his supporters. So lets say the House votes to impeach. How sure are you about the Senate regarding judgment to remove?
Don explains the process and sets forth a list of Republican Senators that are not dependable. So on a scale of 1- 5 with 1 – likely convict ; 2- lean convict; 3- toss-up; 4- lean not convict and 5 -likely not convict evaluate the list of usual suspect Republicans shown here. With 2/3 necessary (total 67) and 47 Democrats in the bag — 20 Republicans would be needed. A lot of 1, 2 and 3 votes for the sixteen shown leads to less confidence. With the sixteen add just five more not listed that you can rate 1,2, or 3 and you see DLH’s point. All of such effete Republicans may justify to the gullible a vote to convict as providing for a VP Pence ascension, which we see as a pathetic insult to Pence and an effort to handicap him as well.