- The war was less the problem than communication from the top
- Trump has been doing the right thing but not explaining it well
- GOP has not been up to the task either
Rambling thoughts:
It has become conventional wisdom that the best explanation for the loss is the “war”. Arguably that is so but obliquely. Oh sure most of the voting populace on Tuesday were dissatisfied over it and a large element in high dudgeon about anything Trump or Republican. But my view is that not “doing” the “war” had its own inflation risks with possibly just as forceful ~~ throw the bums out implications. Inflation is inflation.
And by the way the use of the term “war of choice” is a shibboleth in its own right.
I would like to ask the proponents of this superficial analysis of “the war” being the reasons for our political losses . . . pray tell what would be the best explanation of radical jihadist Iranian hegemony over the middle east and beyond and its effect on fuel prices and the resultant inflation in all things had Iraq produced nuclear weapons? It would be not going to war.
Even with out the bomb Irans nut-cases in charge have demonstrated sufficient maniacal tendencies for the sentient to see that they were also intent on dominating the area with sophisticated conventional war making capabilities, especially the Hormuz. that is thanks to their own proclivities and convenient help from China and Russia to kowtow the west to their designs.
That could have come to “fruition” in a very short time and people might rally to a cause but the conflagration would be bigger and the prices higher. So it is rather superficial to say it was about Israel (the jihadists hate the West as much as Israel, Israel is just an outpost of the west to them. `What happens to politics if Iran gets the bomb because Trump dithered?
What would be the best explanation of the politics of a worse situation resulting from kicking the can down the road until a much greater conflagration occurs? (Patience, I am leading somewhere with this). Timing is everything but circumstances were not necessarily going to be dictated by our midterms.
Oh I get it, we are talking tea leaves and exit polling at a point in time. The reason for the loss is whatever reason the opposition can gin up and stupid people are gullible enough to imbibe as truth.. The vote tallied yesterday was base Dems doing what they do — hate anything Trump does and always blame Republicans first. That is a given. Now add grumbling (self-absorbed) populace that still has their bellies full, has more employment than achieved in decades, is impatient with everything and has the memory of house flies it seems. Fuel prices were higher under Biden and job prospects worse. but oh well.
Arguably all wars are wars of choice because subjugation is a choice. We could have capitulated in WWII to Japanese and German designs and there would be no “necessity” of Pearl Harbor ( but then it seems the peace lover tactic of boycotts also breeds war). Similar questions could be remarked about subsequent rationing then and latter the defense spending and involvements of the 1950’s in the face of Russian and Chinese designs as regards Korea and Indochina. We could have said no wars of choice in 1990 — not our battle no dog in the hunt or something. In 2001 if only we had accommodated Islam better and not supported Israel. If we had just stopped being Great Satin’ all would be well.
So the matter depends on what degree of tolerance of hegemony a country has. In spite of our own domestic production America was in no serious position to isolate itself from the effects of world oil prices driving inflation should Iran have been allowed to proceed with its nuclear weapons development (it was near critical mass thanks to Obama and feckless others). How long do you ignore jihadists again?
Then when the crisis happens, as those jihadist maniacs were intent to foment one way or another, and prices go up, the same people or others in equivalent numbers would blame whoever is in power for inflation driven by not kinetic action but the threat of it by Iran. They won’t blame their own misplaced isolationism of course. Someone would be blamed for kicking the can down the road and failure to recognize the threat and do something about it and causing inflation.
My view is that the vicissitudes of doing what is right can be weathered with attention to arguments and explanations at a level that people can understand and with repetition to meet their short attention spans, and to counter detractors and political opportunists. On that Trump was an inarticulate failure as were the various campaign apparats of GOP federal candidates. The “explanation” was not “the war” as much as it was the failure to communicate the need for action consistently and not make promises about it or exaggerate successes. Trumps mouth is the reason more so than the explainability of the war to a sentient polity.
In other words the primary cause of the loss is stupid voters who have an obligation to be serious about issues, then evil Democrat politicians, and then Trump and other GOP politicians and their apparat being poor at, inconsistent at, and counterproductive at educating the populace early on and thus inoculating them from the Dems on this serious matter of the “war”. . It was compounded by Trump’s penchant for speaking in superlatives (including bad promises about “wars”, making statements that are not “operative” in peoples eyes. It was first an ignorant and largely selfish failure of the populace, and poor leadership communication. A disastrous combination.
