Republicans need a net of six seats to claim the U.S. Senate. Political analyst Dick Morris, in what he describes as an unusually pessimistic outlook for him, sets forth what he sees as the current likelihood of Republican pick ups of Senate seats:
If the election were held today two open seats can be predicted to be locks for the Republicans: West Virgina, South Dakota. Morris says Montana looks to be very strong. Arkansas is leaning for Republican Tom Cotton but is not a sure thing. Together they provide only four clear likely wins, if the election were held today.
Morris lists Iowa and Colorado as tied races (whoda thunk Braley would screw up so badly). Morris also lists two races in which Republicans had good chances but which may be slipping away. They are Louisiana (thanks Chamber of Commerce) and North Carolina. Morris says Michigan is not currently in play for the Republican and that Scott Brown in New Hampshire is running 8 – 10 points behind. He indicates that Mitch McConnell does not have clear sailing. Currently he rates the chances of a Republican takeover of the Senate at fifty -fifty.