Touting only the part of a poll that indicates a dramatic Trump lead as regards the Republican nomination is misleading as regards key political sentiment
Asking Republicans who they think is more likely to beat presumed Democrat nominee Joe Biden ought to be the companion question and revelation to who they think will win the nomination. The two questions are definitely not the same or possess the same assurance from respondents
Points to consider regarding who leads in the race for the 2024 Republican nomination for president
The specific questions asked of respondents — are they leading or unnecessarily limited, do they ask enough to get a decent snapshot off the sentiment
The people whose responses are reported — are they registered Republicans, are they likely primary voters, does the poll include Democrats and independents proffering their opinion on what Republicans will do, who they think Republicans will pick
Are the respondents independently aware of who is or might be seeking the nomination — an open question vs the pollster reading a list might only result in a skewed response toward the most recognized name which this early in the process is not very predictive of the eventual nominee or general election victor.
Any poll indicating whatever margin this early is not likely to hold up to an engaged active primary complete with debates, rallies, campaigning of various sorts.
Is there anything unusual going on that might skew results the effect of which might largely dissipate
Various media outlets and the Trump campaign have amplified recent polls indicating Trump is supposedly pulling away from DeSantis even though he remains an unannounced candidate. Perhaps as a snapshot in time there has been such movement although many questions arise dictated by the above points about such polling regarding the Republican nomination.
The commentaries from the right and even some from the left suggest that news of the atrocious political indictment orchestrated by the leftist Manhattan District Attorney against Trump regarding accounting for hush money paid to end false stories about Trump put out by a publicity seeking porn star — have backfired on the left only to increase Trump’s standing in the polls and nomination prospects. Or have they.
The backfire theory — as in undesired result theory — depends on a correct reading of what “the left” wants currently. It could be one thing and another, or if not one thing, another. We can only guess what goes in the minds of Marxists, but here goes:
The rabid left that wants to see Trump perp-walked in the belief it will hamstring him and Republicans — they are the element originally driving the “lets get Trump” bandwagon that Manhattan DA Bragg had been resisting. But what if the sober left, seeing the tea leaves shaking out just on the rumors and early leaks of the grand jury probe — what if that shake out appeared to be Trump climbing and DeSantis falling . . . and that is what they really want.
What if they decided ~~ ‘hey we beat Trump by locking our criminal but useful idiot candidate in his basement and the fact is our electoral college strategy of cheat-to-win in key states is still intact thanks in part (to their way of thinking) Trump’s turnout appeal (negative for swing voters = positive for them).’ These Democrats feel that the 2022 red tsunami did not appear because they successfully tied Republicans to Trump — not Trump policies – but Trump — the “Drama Queen from Queens” “The Anti-Democracy Insurrectionist” “The Orange Man Racist” . . .
Our view is that the overwhelming reason Republicans did not do better, especially in the House but also elsewhere, is that Republicans were ineffective in dealing with early voting (inoculating early voters with aggressive messaging, frankly, demonizing Democrat policies for what they are — demonic). Campaigns that are not full throttle in mid-summer only allow lots of time for dominant leftist media outlets to beat up on Republicans inoculating the populace before they turn to early voting “projects”..
Democrats know there will not be a sympathy vote for Trump they cannot contain in the battleground states and the rest they do not care about as far as the presidency. That and that their usual “turn-out” tools (legitimate or not) will still be available for effective use. In this scenario, if Trump does not get the nomination they lose some of the negative messaging power they think effective along with the prospect of Trump’s penchant for saying questionable things to Republican detriment down ticket as well.
Now to be sure many Republicans think Trump is the only candidate that can win the general, the only one who can unite or appeal to the little guy, increase turnout, adding Hispanics and Blacks . . . the only one with the energy and cajones to take on the Democrats. They see the polls surrounding the indictment news as sustaining their view. They believe such polls reflect a coalescence now and forever indicating Trump is the candidate to win.
If the left does not already know how unsustainable the charges against Trump are, even if the case collapses because the trial judge throws it out or any conviction is devastated on appeal — as long as they have helped bring Trump over the nomination finish line (because a lot of Republicans feel sorry for Trump) they still have more negative sentiment to exploit regarding Trump than they would with DeSantis or perhaps another emerging top tier candidate. Now we are of the opinion at this very early time that DeSantis is the only one with the horsepower (all factors) to rival Trump and less negatives necessary to win — a track record and political finesse. We know the sentiment for much Trump support is that politics is professional wrestling — but what if it is a little more mixed martial arts?
For the left there is also the internal twofer of the indictment pursuit. Perhaps the Democrat movers/manipulators in charge know that the Biden crime family is very vulnerable as to the mounting evidence emanating in part from Hunter’s “lap-top from hell.” They need as much mud out there, true or not, to help with their Republicans are worse rhetoric. Having Trump lead the ticket enables their mud slinging about his family members lobbying activities post 2020. There is likely nothing illegal in them but they just need the “they do it too” optics. It is easier to defend Joe or Democrats with controversy regarding Trumps family.
They may well be fooling themselves and we would help to establish that should Trump get the nomination. — but they won a lot of votes for president in 2020 and they didn’t need to cheat in every state to roll up a lot of popular and electoral votes. Their “mechanisms” are still largely in place in battleground states — Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and they will adapt in other perceived marginal states.
No matter who the nominee becomes, Republicans need to inoculate enough voters who continue to vote early for some ungodly reason so that more of the ballots collected by Democrats are not exclusively Democrat and to use lawfare to prevent fraudulent balloting.
This post has gotten too long so we will get into the specifics of some recent polls that on the one hand indicate Trump leads substantially as to the predicted or favored Republican nominee but not nearly so, and even inferior as to public opinion as who is more likely to beat Biden. That will be Part 2.2 of DeSantis or Trump, Trump or DeSantis.
And everyone should keep in mind we are trying to predict Leftist gamers thought processes and that of a not very well informed populace (Democrats and America’s mushy middle). Things regarding the Biden prospects could blow up for Democrats but their mechanisms are still in place to “help” whoever claims their baton. We think Republicans should concentrate on inoculation and motivation — the superior turn-out and ballot assurance mechanism.