Utah is melting!

Ben Garrison cartoon seems appropriate

INCH BY INCH, GOOD OLD “MITTENS” IS EDGING CLOSER TO PULLING A “JUMPIN’ JIM JEFFORDS’…SWITCHING PARTIES DURING HIS TERM. WHEN

HE REALIZES AFTER FINDING NO INTEREST IN GIVING HIM THE 2020 NOMINATION, AND THE SAME PROSPECT APPEARING TO BE VERY LIKELY IN 2024, “MITTENS” WILL START ‘LOOKING FOR LOVE’ IN ALL THE LIBERAL PLACES!     DLH

Mitt Romney: Climate change is happening, humans a significant contributor

(excerpt)

– – …the senator acknowledged that the position is rare among his fellow Republicans, but one that younger people seem to respond to more strongly than older conservatives. In some respects, (by speaking with newer conservatives), I’ll be able to make inroads with some of the young people coming along,” he said.

– (He) discussed the benefits of a carbon tax, a fee based on each ton of carbon dioxide emissions produced by fossil fuels that some

– Romney said he’s opposed to the Green New Deal… because much of the growth in emissions is coming from developing countries such as India and Brazil rather than the U.S.major oil companies have adopted.

– On immigration, Romney said he shared the angst of Democrats over family separations at the U.S.-Mexico border, calling it a “very dark chapter” in the country’s history.

– He stressed the need for tougher border security and a “merit-based system” of legal immigration…

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Senator Ernst keep this in mind in your deliberations

TN sent us an historic tidbit with the hope that our good Junior Senator will keep it in mind with all the pathetic gun-control talk in Washington.

Iowa is one of five states in our fairly cursory check that has a firearm incorporated into the state’s official seal.  Iowa’s state motto Our liberties we prize, and our rights we will maintain is one of the most martial of mottoes of the fifty states. 

From a Wiki post:

Citizen soldier. The seal was approved during the Mexican–American War of 1846–1848, and the citizen soldier depicted with a “liberty cap” represents volunteer soldiers from Iowa. Battles of the Mexican-American war are also memorialized in several place names, including the counties of Buena Vista, Palo Alto and Cerro Gordo. As is traditional in official symbols, weapons are held in the soldier’s left hand, and items of peace and freedom in the right.

The other states which incorporate a firearm are Delaware, Minnesota,  Michigan and West Virginia. (corrections from a more thorough search are welcome). They are shown in their full glory below. We do note that a number of other states show clutches of arrows and spears, both classic representations of arms in heraldry.

The Wiki entries seam well referenced with information on the symbolism and also the pertinence of the state motto and other writing on the official state seals.

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Foggy-bottom is where the truth gets you in trouble

“For example, several career employees reported that throughout her tenure at the Department, Ms. Stull referred to them or to other career employees as ‘Obama holdovers,’ ‘traitors,’ or ‘disloyal,'” the report said. “Other career employees told OIG that Ms. Stull accused them of being part of the ‘Deep State’ and that the Assistant Secretary accused them of ‘undermining the President’s agenda.'”

“In one instance, the report noted, Stull “expressed displeasure” with a legislative affairs employee accompanying a delegation of the Congressional Black Caucus “because it consisted of only Democratic members.” Stull accused the employee “of trying to ‘thwart’ President Trump and undermine his agenda” and many of the employee’s job responsibilities were reassigned. That employee eventually left the State Department.”

***********************************************************************

  • Former Trump official in question left in January
  • One wonders if the OIG investigated whether Obama holdovers operate their own “culture of impunity” (see article)

Top State Department officials berated and insulted staff, labeled some ‘traitors’   CNN (excerpt)

CNN (an excerpt) Top officials in the State Department’s Bureau of International Organization Affairs subjected employees to “disrespectful and hostile treatment,” accusations of disloyalty, and retaliation, a long-awaited report from the department’s watchdog agency found. The report also said the bureau’s leadership “did not take significant action” to address these concerns.

“Nearly every employee interviewed by OIG raised concerns about the leadership of IO and the treatment of staff,” according to the report released Thursday by the State Department Office of Inspector General.

The bureau’s leaders labeled some employees “traitors,” if they felt they didn’t support President Donald Trump. They berated others for following procedures, punished staff for not doing work the department’s Office of the Legal Adviser had deemed “inappropriate” and targeted others for retaliation, in one case because of a staffer’s “relationship with the gay and lesbian community.”

The concerns are largely centered around Mari Stull — the “Vino Vixen” wine blogger lobbyist turned Trump administration appointee in IO — and IO Assistant Secretary Kevin Moley.   . . .

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Rep. Eliot Engel said Thursday that the report “confirms what we feared: ‘disrespectful and hostile’ treatment of career employees at the State Department.” The New York Democrat urged Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to fire Moley.

“There is more to come, and I hope it comes very soon. The delays from the Department on this matter have been frustrating. The House Foreign Affairs Committee, along with the House Committee on Oversight and Reform and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is conducting an independent inquiry on these matters, and we won’t stop until this culture of impunity is ended and everyone responsible faces stiff consequences,” Engel said in a statement.

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In other words: Rashida: “To heck with Grannie”

Soap box stunt more important

Picture and caption not in article

Tlaib declines to visit West Bank, citing Israeli conditions 

Rashida “The Mouth” Tlaib won’t shut it long enough to say hello to her g’ma in person

JERUSALEM (AP) — Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib said Friday she would not visit her grandmother in the occupied West Bank, despite being granted an Israeli permit on humanitarian grounds, saying Israel’s “oppressive” conditions aimed to humiliate her.

Israel barred Tlaib and another Democrat, Rep. Ilhan Omar, from visiting Jerusalem and the West Bank over their support for the international boycott movement following an unprecedented appeal from President Donald Trump to deny them entry.

Israel had said Tlaib could visit relatives in the West Bank on humanitarian grounds. But then the Interior Ministry released a letter purportedly signed by Tlaib in which she promised not to advocate boycotts during her visit. That appears to have led to her decision to cancel the visit.

“Visiting my grandmother under these oppressive conditions meant to humiliate me would break my grandmother’s heart,” she said in a statement. “Silencing me with treatment to make me feel less-than is not what she wants for me — it would kill a piece of me that always stands up against racism and injustice.”

Tlaib and Omar had planned to visit Jerusalem and the Israeli-occupied West Bank next week on a tour organized by a Palestinian group. The two are outspoken critics of Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians and support the Palestinian-led international movement boycotting Israel.

The two newly elected Muslim members of Congress have sparred with Trump, who tweeted before the decision that it would be a “show of weakness” to allow them in. Israel controls entry and exit to the West Bank, which it seized in the 1967 Mideast war along with east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip — territories the Palestinians want for a future state.

Israeli Interior Minister Aryeh Deri announced early Friday that Tlaib had requested and been granted permission to enter the West Bank to see relatives. The U.S.-born Tlaib’s family immigrated from the West Bank.

Deri’s office released what it said was Tlaib’s request, written on congressional stationery and dated Thursday, in which she said she wanted to visit her grandmother, who is in her 90s.
“This could be my last opportunity to see her. I will respect any restrictions and will not promote boycotts against Israel during my visit,” she said. Tlaib’s office could not immediately be reached for comment on the letter’s authenticity.

Shortly after the announcement, Tlaib tweeted that she wouldn’t allow Israel to use her love for her grandmother to force her to “bow down to their oppressive & racist policies.”
“When I won (in 2018), it gave the Palestinian people hope that someone will finally speak the truth about the inhumane conditions. I can’t allow the State of Israel to take away that light by humiliating me,” she wrote.

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More regarding the “inverted yield curve” panic

Apropos nothing

We addressed the subject yesterday and today we see that Alexander Green writing at Liberty Through Wealth made observations succinct and to the point:

The Best Stock Market Signal in 61 Years?

  • The Dow dropped more than 800 points yesterday, but it’s not time to panic.
  • Today, Alexander Green explains the factors affecting bond and stock yields and how investors should react to this major buying signal.

The Dow swooned over 800 points Wednesday in reaction to the “inverted yield curve.”
That means, of course, that interest rates on short-term bonds are now higher than those on longer-term bonds.

The yield curve has inverted before every recession since 1955.

Does this mean a recession – or a serious bear market – is now on our doorstep, especially given the recent trade tensions with China?

It does not.

For starters, past recessions have started an average of 15 months after the inversion.
And there are plenty of signs – including near-record-low unemployment, rising wages and record-high household income – that the economy remains plenty healthy.

One reason U.S. bond yields have dropped is that foreign bond yields in Europe and Japan are so much lower.

Indeed, the yield on more than $15 trillion of global bonds is negative, guaranteeing holders that they will get back less than their original investments.

This motivates international investors to seek higher yields in the good ol’ U.S.A. In short, their buying drives our yields lower.

Now we’ve reached an important tipping point… one I’ve pointed out before.

Just weeks before the stock market made a dramatic bottom in early 2009, I wrote an Investment U column titled “One of the Best Buy Signals in 51 Years.”

I have no idea how many readers acted on my analysis. After all, the financial crisis was in full swing and investor sentiment – to quote Jed Clampett – “was lower than a hog’s jaw on market day.”

But folks who bought stocks on this signal made gobs of money.
It flashed again in the summer of 2011 – and I pointed it out again. The market is up severalfold since then.

Now – for only the third time in 61 years – this uncanny signal is ringing like a fire alarm once more.

Let’s examine exactly why this is one of the best and most accurate signals in stock market history…

Market Yields: Stock vs. U.S. Treasurys

In the first half of the 20th century, investors found that if you bought stocks only when the market’s yield exceeded the yield on 10-year Treasurys, you were in for every single major rally.

The returns were huge – and the system made perfect sense.

Stocks are riskier than bonds, market participants reasoned, so they should yield more to compensate for greater volatility and the likelihood of occasional losses.

The system worked like a charm until 1958. Then it stopped cold. Why? Because for the next half a century, stocks never yielded more than Treasurys.

Public companies began using their cash flows to fund operations and acquisitions rather than paying out dividends to shareholders.

With stock yields sharply lower, most analysts reasoned that the indicator was dead, that the yield on stocks would never again top bonds.

Indeed, it took a full-blown financial crisis for it to happen.

And it’s happening again now, thanks to the dive in government bond yields and the simultaneous socking that stocks have undergone.

(Rising bond prices reduce bond yields while falling stock prices increase dividend yields.)
For only the third time since 1958, stocks are yielding more than bonds: The S&P 500 currently yields 1.91%, while 10-year U.S. Treasurys yield 1.54%.

Granted, both yields are lower than normal.

But understand that an investor who buys an S&P 500 index fund will earn more over the next decade than an investor who buys 10-year Treasurys, even if equities go nowhere.

In fact, this is true even if dividends – which historically rise 5.8% per year – don’t increase one iota either. (Not likely.)

History Says… Stocks Are a Terrific Long-Term Buy

This indicates that stocks remain a terrific long-term buy, while Treasurys – which offer a yield unlikely to even match inflation – are guaranteed to deliver meager returns.

This doesn’t mean, of course, that stocks can’t sell off more in the short term or that bond prices – which move inversely to yields – won’t rally further.

And there are no guarantees in the world of stock market investing.

But as Patrick Henry famously said, “I know no way of judging the future but by the past.”
Good investing,  Alex

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The Clinton’s coincidences have become a joke

If you have something on them, or those powerful like them, or as one of them, they fear you will betray them, well, you better have an insurance policy, noncancellable. So the meme goes.

The Clinton personas are now set in the meme world by the many “coincidences” — suicides, murders, unexplained deaths of people who may have had intimate personal knowledge of one or the others “activities”.   They have been associated with a lot of scandal and there has been an awful lot of collateral damage.

‘Clinton death list’: 34 spine-tingling cases

The following is via Lucianne.com in the last few days:

https://www.commdiginews.com/politics-2/clinton-coincidence-was-jeffrey-epsteins-death-a-suicide-121764/

Would they be involved in taking out Epstein . . . if not them would any of their friends and acquaintances also implicated by their association with Epstein? Besides the available record of twenty some flights by Bill Clinton (however denied by BC) on Epstein’s airplane “The Lolita Express” Epstein is said to have kept a black book so to speak. If such a record exists and “damaging” information is found —  without Epstein around to swear to it, add damning verifiable details, well it may be that nothing is criminally actionable.

The Clintons are not afraid of implications, their sycophants are sufficient to allow them to proceed unencumbered by more than “rumor”  into their rapidly waning years.  But I suspect Bill is desperate to stay out of jail and Epstein’s demise might be convenient for him, although surely just another mere coincidental death.

Related reading: Epstein Autopsy Finds Evidence He May Have Been Murdered

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Stoking recession fears not helpful

  • Read deeper before panicking over recent news about “yield curves” and what they signal

Drudge* [the news aggregator that  writes its own headlines and link verbiage], (other) sensation mongers, and all the usual suspects have been stoking “imminent recession” fears every month (every week) for many months.  They certainly put out fearful headlines and put the articles chosen to link to on a greater plane than sober analysis.

Unfortunately even if the articles are more sober than the headlines, the use of click-bait headlines by news outlets with wide reach entices panic moods in small and even large investors who may feel obligated to sell (or buy) such news (especially if it churns an account). They may feel “obligated ” to respond to market conditions driven by fear rather than knowledge.  Group think and rumor can move markets as much or more than reliable facts.

Some trading signals are hide-bound with the built-in use of economic “indicators”  that may represent factors that have outlived their usefulness or are quite debatable as to providing predictability to the economy or markets. The usual suspects of course will want to emphasize anything that causes people to loose confidence in Trump*.

Another problem with repetition of overwrought recession fears is that some economists are using Google search topics and interpreting them as indicators to the effect that if people are more frequently searching fearful articles, because that is the sort of “news” being highlighted, that is negative indicator.  It is of course a rather self-perpetuating process with built-in bias.

Here are some links and excerpts that read carefully call into question the reliance on bond “yield curves” as a near term recession indicator that seems to be the primary hobgoblin out there today. Do not consider this trading advise, do your own due diligence including consulting a trusted adviser(s) before making trading or other economic impact decisions.

Note that some articles are older than the latest data so keep that in mind but read them for what they say about the concept of certain indicators. Keep in mind that employment is high, inflation is not excessive, people are buying but also saving, and those are what makes economies move.    R Mall

July 30, 2019: CNBC

Recession is not imminent, strategist says – cnbc.com 

Older news – the recession is around the corner headline grabber has been going on for awhile– Aug 31, 2018:

Early Recession Warnings Are Flashing Red Orange 

Tom Wald, Chief Investment Officer, Transamerica Asset Management April 3, 2019:

Inverted Yield Curve Not Flashing Recession Warning 

July 8, 2019:

Natixis: Global Recession Not Imminent, But Then Again … 

CNBC via TrustNet.com: 05 June 2019

Are falling bond yields warning of an impending recession?     (excerpt- with bold our emphasis)

David Jane, manager of the £502.8m LF Miton Cautious Multi Asset fund, sees no recession on the immediate horizon. He argued that accommodative monetary environment that was ushered in after the global financial crisis (GFC) has broken the pattern of the bond market’s inverted yield curve being an indicator of a recession.

“US government bond yields are reaching new recent lows while economic data, at least in the US, is surprising to the upside. It’s not meant to be that way but it is,” he said.

“Bond yields offer an indicator of the market’s collective view of future interest rates, at least in theory. It follows that they offer an insight into the market’s view of future inflation and economic growth prospects.

“Given that these have been falling, quite rapidly of late, the market must be expecting a slowdown in growth or inflation or both. However, simultaneously, economic data and leading indicators have been improving following last years’ declines, which is inconsistent.”

One possible explanation for this, according to Jane, is that “old economic theory is wrong”.

The multi-asset manager noted that longer-term bond yields were seen as a representation of what the expected long-term nominal economic growth would be, so their rise and fall was expected to coincide with expected growth and inflation. But this model was established in the pre-GFC era, when bond markets were free of “institutional interference”.

Today, however, central banks are big buyers of government bonds and their main concerns is to avoid a second crisis by creating an accommodative monetary environment. Meanwhile, regulatory capital rules and access to cheap central bank funding mean commercial banks have an incentive to hold government bonds while pension fund regulation has created a huge demand for low risk, long duration assets with income.


*This writer’s personal opinion is that Drudge has institutionalized negatives about Trump, that is my main complaint. I used to rely on Drudge for being an aggregator that was not biased against conservatives even if it focused on a lot of cringe-worthy tabloid stuff. The latter is OK if doesn’t fill the bill entirely as it does provide a cultural reflection (hopefully not too skewed).  But a “balanced”  liberal/conservative aggregator is not what is really needed (although that would be an improvement for Drudge many days as to Trump). An honest aggregator that balances by way of being a convenient site for pro-conservative reportage along with Drudge for other convenience he might bring is something we find beneficial.  That exists at The Liberty Daily   which by the way used to be against Trump.  It should be noted that Drudge never claimed to be a “conservative” site that I am aware.  R Mall

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Massachusetts Justice

  • “Aiding and abetting”? NO! Not if it is a liberal judge in a liberal state.

COMPLIMENTS OF JUDGE SHELLEY J. REDEEMABLE BY ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS

This story is pretty straightforward. By any sane definition, a legally determined immigration lawbreaker is ordered/allowed by a “judge” to be snuck out of the courthouse so that federal law enforcement cannot take custody. Note there is no claim of a burden on the courts administration or jail system as ICE was already in the building and the judge knew it.

What kind of a judge is it that aids lawbreakers to evade justice?

Why, that’s easy. A liberal judge of the kind that the Democratic Party would like to have in every courthouse in the nation so that the radical can determine which laws they wish to enforce!

JUDGE ACCUSED OF HELPING IMMIGRANT ESCAPE ICE THROUGH COURT BACK DOOR SEES PAY AND BENEFITS RESTORED

BY CHANTAL DA SILVA at Newsweek:

A Massachusetts judge who was suspended in April over allegations she helped an immigrant escape immigration authorities by sneaking him out a courthouse back door is set to have her pay restored, as her own case continues to play out in court.

On Tuesday, the Supreme Judicial Court said it had revised an April order stripping Newton District Court Judge Shelley Joseph of her pay and benefits, allowing the judge to return to the payroll while her case continues.
The high court refused, however, to allow the judge to return to work on administrative duties.

As Newsweek had reported in December, Newton District Court Judge Shelley Joseph had been accused of helping defendant Jose Medina-Perez escape U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents during a court hearing.
Medina-Perez, a twice-deported immigrant, had been in court to face drug charges, according to The Boston Globe, which first broke the story. However, he also had an ICE detainer on his record. An ICE detainer is essentially a written request from the federal immigration agency asking that local jail or other law enforcement detain an individual for up to 48 hours after their release in case ICE wants to take them into federal custody. Compliance with ICE detainers, unlike federal warrants, is voluntary. According to the Globe, Medina-Perez’s defense attorney had asked Joseph to approach the bench, raising the alarm that at least one agent was present in the courthouse, waiting to detain Medina-Perez.Shortly after that conversation, the man was allegedly escorted downstairs, released from custody and allowed to leave the courthouse through a back door, evading ICE.The Supreme Judicial Court’s decision to reinstate Joseph’s pay and benefits comes after the judge’s lawyers argued that the decision to suspend her pay undermined the presumption of innocence in her case. Joseph has pleaded not guilty to obstructing justice in the incident, while her lawyers have argued that the case against her is politically motivated.

Now one might say even the judge gets her day in court. But this should be an administrative hearing, not a court proceeding per se, and subject to forfeiture of pay and a fine at the bare minimum for conduct unbecoming . . .

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Something for President Trump to walk back ASAP

“I like taking the guns first . . . then you can do due process”

This is where his imprecision gets him in trouble at a very sensitive time.  He may have meant only when there is unanimous with multiple sworn statements about a gun-owners insanity. . . but in the case Trump was probably thinking about  — one wonders why the hell didn’t  such knowledgeable people confiscate the guns themselves if it was an ongoing situation or start a process with the judicial system??   R Mall

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Cuomo will have none of that :” Sticks and stones may … but words …” stuff

  • He’ll break your bones
  • He may be a strong case for “Red Flag” laws
  • Fredo Fredo Fredo Fredo Fredo (sorry, we can’t help it)

Chris Cuomo better not support “Red Flag” laws

Anyone viewing the video clip must conclude that CNN’s Chris Cuomo would most certainly be subject to “Red Flag” laws if passed.  Talk about insane over reaction.  He got more aggressive the more apologetic the supposed heckler got — a sign of a pathological type.  Check it out (various sources).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=14&v=2NAwowhwi9c

If ever enacted, “Red Flag” laws prohibiting gun ownership by persons deemed mentally or emotionally unstable would ensnare a number of leftist and liberal ‘celebrities’, including US senators (delusional Corey Booker for one) and cable TV personalities (Cuomo).

In Cuomo’s case, even without “Red Flag” law, most rational Americans would not want to see a guy with this kind of temperament armed with anything more lethal than a plastic butter knife. More comment below excerpt.     DLH

CNN’s Chris Cuomo Filmed Erupting at Heckler Who Called Him ‘Fredo’: ‘I’ll F*cking Ruin Your Sh*t’
By Josh Feldman Mediaite

CNN’s Chris Cuomo erupted at a man in public who apparently called him “Fredo,” in a wild moment caught on video that went viral Monday night.

The encounter between Cuomo and the man happened at a Shelter Island bar — that appears to be Sunset Beach — on Sunday. The video, surreptitiously filmed by the man Cuomo was shouting at, was uploaded to Twitter by a user who said he was sent the clip.
“Punk-ass bitches from the right call me Fredo,” Cuomo told the man, who claimed he thought the CNN anchor was named Fredo. “My name is Chris Cuomo. I’m an anchor on CNN. Fredo is from The Godfather.”

“They use it as an Italian aspersion. Any of you Italian?” Cuomo continued. “It’s an insult to your fucking people. It’s like the N-word for us.”

They went back and forth, and at one point Cuomo said, “I’ll fucking ruin your shit. I’ll fucking throw you down these stairs like a fucking punk.”

A CNN spokesperson told Mediaite in a statement, “Chris Cuomo defended himself when he was verbally attacked with the use of an ethnic slur in an orchestrated setup. We completely support him.”

Cuomo is receiving support from outside CNN as well. His 9 p.m. rival at Fox News, Sean Hannity, tweeted “good for [Cuomo]” in response to the video. “He’s out with his 9 year old daughter, and his wife, and this guy is being a jackass in front of his family,” Hannity wrote. “Imho Chris Cuomo has zero to apologize for. He deserves the apology.”

Cuomo is off air this week, but he will return on Monday. CNN told Mediaite his vacation was pre-planned.

This editor is thinking either we missed something or Hannity’s comment is strange. Cuomo is way over the top.  Is the level of Cuomo’s reaction what Hannity would do if someone cat-called: Hey “Paddy” or “Mick” or “Whitey”.     R Mall

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